Platense FC v CD Motagua prediction · Liga Nacional

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 00:30

Platense FC 0–2 CD Motagua CD MOTAGUA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CD Motagua win~~46%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.444

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.291

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CD Motagua win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: CD Motagua was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 28–26–46
1′KICK-OFF Platense FC v CD Motagua
29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' CD Motagua
45′SECOND HALF Platense FC 0–0 CD Motagua
46′HALF-TIME Platense FC 0–0 CD Motagua
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' CD Motagua win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was CD Motagua win 35%)
53′We said CD Motagua at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 24–43–34
55′We expected about 2.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 25–38–37
61′We published CD Motagua at 46%. Our model now makes it 79%. 0–1 · 4–17–79
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Platense FC 0–1 CD Motagua
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' CD Motagua win: 46% at kick-off, 79% now
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' CD Motagua win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 17%)
62′CD Motagua find the net on 61′. 0–1. 0–1 · 4–17–79
62′SUBSTITUTION · 57' CD Motagua · On: A. Barrios · Off: E. Izaguirre
63′CD Motagua find the net on 61′. 0–1. 0–1 · 4–17–79
66′We published CD Motagua at 46%. Our model now makes it 81%. 0–1 · 3–16–81
66′CD Motagua ahead on 60′ through A. Barrios. 0–1. 0–1 · 3–16–81
67′SUBSTITUTION · 57' CD Motagua · On: D. Oliva · Off: J. Batiz
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Platense FC · On: Y. Urbina · Off: A. Portillo
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' CD Motagua · On: R. Gomez · Off: D. Melendez
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Platense FC · On: G. Welcome · Off: M. Arzu
68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' CD Motagua · On: J. Miranda · Off: R. De Olivera
76′We published CD Motagua at 46%. Our model now makes it 86%. 0–1 · 1–13–86
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' CD Motagua win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
77′SUBSTITUTION · 69' CD Motagua · On: P. Cacho · Off: V. Marinacci
80′A goal for CD Motagua on 80′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Platense FC 0–2 CD Motagua
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' CD Motagua win: 46% at kick-off, 99% now
81′We published CD Motagua at 46%. Our model now makes it 99%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
82′We published CD Motagua at 46%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
87′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Platense FC · On: J. Castillo Marin · Off: A. Garcia
87′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Platense FC · On: J. Brooks · Off: C. Gutierrez
87′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Platense FC · On: J. J. Rodriguez · Off: G. Canahuati
87′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Platense FC
90′Full time, 0–2. We called CD Motagua at 46% — that one lands. 0–2 · 0–0–100
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' CD Motagua
FTFULL TIME Platense FC 0–2 CD Motagua
FTPlatense FC 0–2 CD Motagua · CD Motagua win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CD Motagua are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Platense FC 28%, draw 26%, CD Motagua 46%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Platense FC v CD MotaguaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Platense FC win28%

Draw26%

CD Motagua win46%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 22:00

RoundApertura · matchday 10

VenueEstadio Excelsior

Line-ups

Platense FC

CD Motagua

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Platense FC

CD Motagua

8Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga Nacional (Honduras)

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga Nacional (Honduras)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	CD Motagua	9	+4	16
10	Platense FC	9	−11	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Platense FC

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Bonilla

16 A. Portillo

3 E. Garcia

21 B. Santos

27 A. Garcia

14 E. Urbina

23 M. Salinas

13 M. Arzu

22 C. Gutierrez

19 G. Canahuati

30 E. Solano

Coach · Caceres Raul

Substitutes

28 · M. Loaiza

24 · M. Moncada

29 · J. Funes

6 · J. Castillo Marin

25 · J. J. Rodriguez

31 · A. Norales

36 · A. Cruz

57 · Y. Jasid Arzu Marin

12 · G. Welcome

26 · J. Brooks

40 · Y. Urbina

60 · M. Suarez

CD Motagua

Formation not confirmed

22 L. Ortiz

35 C. Melendez

34 G. Sacaza

36 V. Marinacci

17 J. Portillo

8 D. Melendez

24 J. Garcia

23 A. Reyes

33 E. Izaguirre

19 R. De Olivera

21 J. Batiz

Coach · Javier Lopez

Substitutes

25 · M. Licona

4 · L. Vega

26 · L. Crisanto

28 · A. Avila

42 · J. Argueta

10 · R. Gomez

15 · A. Hernandez

30 · J. Miranda

80 · D. Oliva

14 · A. Barrios

3 · P. Cacho

Our number · cd motagua winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market56%

Us46%

~~Market~~56%

We make CD Motagua a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Platense FC v CD Motagua~~1.23 – 1.62

~~Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 16~~10 v 4

~~The market · CD Motagua win~~56% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · CD Motagua win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Platense FC win	28%	19%	+9
Draw	26%	24%	+2
CD Motagua win	46%	56%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	54%	54%	0
Both teams to score	57%	54%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	78%	75%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	32%	33%	−1
Platense FC or draw	54%	44%	+10
Platense FC clean sheet	20%	–	–
CD Motagua clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 6.7 8.6 7.6 4.1 1 6.4 12.2 9.2 5.0 2.0 2 4.4 7.0 5.6 3.1 3 2.9 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Platense FC down, CD Motagua across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,107 Liga Nacional matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.6% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Platense FC at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). CD Motagua away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Platense FC, 1.62 for CD Motagua. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~PLA 0–1 CDM · CDM 2–0 PLA · CDM 0–4 PLA · PLA 1–2 CDM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 22 Aug

PLATENSE FC

LWLDLW0–2 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–1

CD MOTAGUA

WWDWLW4–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CD Olimpia	10	+14	23
2	CD Marathon	10	+9	21
3	Real Espana	10	+9	21
4	CD Motagua	9	+4	16
5	Olancho	10	0	12
6	Génesis	9	+3	11
7	Atletico Independiente	9	−4	10
8	Estrella Roja	9	−4	9
9	Lobos Upnfm	9	−5	9
10	Platense FC	9	−11	8
11	Atlético Choloma	9	−3	7
12	Juticalpa	9	−12	6