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Olancho v Estrella Roja

Olancho

3–3Full time

Estrella Roja

Liga Nacional · SAT 24 OCT · Estadio Juan Ramon Breve Vargas

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 04:35

Olancho 3–3 Estrella Roja OLANCHO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Olancho win~~55%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.913

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.893

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Olancho win at 55%.
1′Much as we predicted: Olancho was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–25–20
1′KICK-OFF Olancho v Estrella Roja
31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Olancho
39′We published Olancho at 55%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–5
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Olancho 1–0 Estrella Roja
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 80% now
40′A goal for Olancho on 39′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 80–15–5
40′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 80–15–5
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Estrella Roja
45′HALF-TIME Olancho 1–0 Estrella Roja
45′SECOND HALF Olancho 1–0 Estrella Roja
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Estrella Roja · On: F. Lopez · Off: E. Duarte
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Estrella Roja · On: R. Mayorquin · Off: C. Calix
53′Estrella Roja score on 53′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 39–43–18
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Olancho 1–1 Estrella Roja
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 39% now
54′We said Olancho at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–43–18
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Olancho win 82%)
57′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 82–15–3
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Olancho 2–1 Estrella Roja
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 82% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Olancho win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 46%)
61′Olancho find the net on 59′. 2–1. 2–1 · 83–14–2
62′Olancho ahead on 57′ through Joanderson. 2–1. 2–1 · 84–14–2
65′We published Olancho at 55%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 85% now
66′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Olancho · On: C. J. Zuniga Bernardez · Off: Y. A. Cabrera
70′We published Olancho at 55%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–1 · 99–1–0
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Olancho 3–1 Estrella Roja
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 99% now
71′A goal for Olancho on 70′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
73′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 99–1–0
73′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Olancho · On: H. Gomez · Off: J. Bengtson
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Olancho
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Estrella Roja · On: M. Garcia · Off: S. Bermudez
79′We published Olancho at 55%. Our model now makes it 91%. 3–2 · 91–9–1
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Olancho 3–2 Estrella Roja
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 91% now
80′Estrella Roja score on 79′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 91–8–0
81′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 92–8–0
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Estrella Roja · On: A. Avila · Off: O. Rosales
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Olancho · On: M. R. Ramirez Arauz · Off: D. Andino
86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Olancho · On: J. Delgado · Off: D. Martinez
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Estrella Roja · On: R. Benitez · Off: D. Duron
90′Estrella Roja find the net on 89′. 3–3. 3–3 · 6–91–3
90′We said Olancho at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 3–3 · 6–91–3
90′Full time, 3–3. We called Olancho at 55% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 3–3 · 0–100–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Olancho 3–3 Estrella Roja
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 6% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Olancho win 97%)
91′6 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–3 · 5–93–3
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 5% now
92′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Olancho · On: N. Munoz · Off: Joanderson
93′We said Olancho at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 3–3 · 3–96–2
FTFULL TIME Olancho 3–3 Estrella Roja
FTOlancho 3–3 Estrella Roja · Olancho win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Olancho are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Olancho 55%, draw 25%, Estrella Roja 20%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Olancho v Estrella RojaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Olancho win55%

Draw25%

Estrella Roja win20%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 02:00

RoundApertura · matchday 11

VenueEstadio Juan Ramon Breve Vargas

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Olancho

Estrella Roja

9Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga Nacional (Honduras)

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Nacional (Honduras)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Olancho	10	0	12
7	Estrella Roja	10	−3	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · olancho winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:38 · locked at kick-off

55% The market52%

Us55%

~~Market~~52%

We make Olancho a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Olancho v Estrella Roja~~1.78 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 30 Aug~~W0 D4 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 12~~5 v 7

~~The market · Olancho win~~52% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Olancho win The market, margin stripped

Published at 57%, 55% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Olancho win	55%	52%	+3
Draw	25%	25%	0
Estrella Roja win	20%	23%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	52%	56%	−4
Both teams to score	52%	57%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	77%	78%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	30%	36%	−6
Olancho or draw	80%	77%	+3
Olancho clean sheet	38%	–	–
Estrella Roja clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 7.3 5.6 3.1 1 10.6 11.6 5.4 2 9.9 9.5 4.7 3 5.9 5.7 2.8 4 2.7 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Olancho down, Estrella Roja across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,111 Liga Nacional matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.7% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026/27 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Olancho at home: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Estrella Roja away: 1.20 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.78 goals for Olancho, 0.98 for Estrella Roja. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026/27

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~EST 0–1 OLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 30 Aug

OLANCHO

LDDDDL1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2

ESTRELLA ROJA

DLDLLW2–2 · 0–5 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CD Olimpia	10	+14	23
2	CD Marathon	10	+9	21
3	Real Espana	10	+9	21
4	CD Motagua	10	+6	19
5	Olancho	10	0	12
6	Lobos Upnfm	10	−1	12
7	Estrella Roja	10	−3	12
8	Génesis	10	+2	11
9	Atlético Choloma	10	−2	10
10	Atletico Independiente	10	−8	10
11	Platense FC	10	−13	8
12	Juticalpa	10	−13	6