Olancho v Atletico Independiente prediction · Liga Nacional

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 03:00

Olancho 1–1 Atletico Independiente OLANCHO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Olancho win~~55%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.873

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.070

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 43 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Olancho win at 55%.
1′Much as we predicted: Olancho was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–25–19
6′Much as we predicted: Olancho was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–26–19
21′A goal for Olancho on 18′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 81–14–5
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 81% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 54% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 81% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 54% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 81% now
24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Atletico Independiente
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 54% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 54% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 81% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 81% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 54% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 54% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 81% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 81% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 81% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 81% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 81% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 81% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 81% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 81% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 81% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 81% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 81% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 81% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 81% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 81% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 81% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Olancho win: 55% at kick-off, 81% now
45′HALF-TIME Olancho 1–0 Atletico Independiente
46′SECOND HALF Olancho 1–0 Atletico Independiente
48′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Atletico Independiente
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Atletico Independiente
61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Atletico Independiente · On: C. S. Oscar Adonay · Off: F. J. Escoto Pineda
61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Atletico Independiente · On: S. Cruz · Off: F. Yanez
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Olancho
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Olancho · On: Y. Banegas · Off: Y. A. Cabrera
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Olancho · On: M. Antunez · Off: J. Bengtson
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Olancho 1–1 Atletico Independiente
77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Olancho 1–1 Atletico Independiente
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Olancho · On: C. Suazo · Off: M. R. Ramirez Arauz
85′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Atletico Independiente · On: E. Luna · Off: M. Techera
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Olancho · On: Assis · Off: J. Delgado Corrected
FTFULL TIME Olancho 1–1 Atletico Independiente
FTOlancho 1–1 Atletico Independiente · Olancho win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Olancho win55%

Draw27%

Atletico Independiente win19%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 00:15

VenueEstadio Juan Ramon Breve Vargas

Line-ups

Olancho

Atletico Independiente

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Olancho

Atletico Independiente

22Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Olancho	8	+1	11
8	Atletico Independiente	8	−4	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Olancho

Formation not confirmed

2 O. Almendarez

8 H. Gomez

12 D. Andino

15 O. Padilla

20 Y. A. Cabrera

22 R. Canavesio

23 J. Delgado

27 J. Bengtson

29 G. Argueta

30 M. R. Ramirez Arauz

33 N. Munoz

Coach · Jairo Lopez Jhon

Substitutes

3 · J. Lasso

7 · D. Rodriguez

11 · Joanderson

16 · Y. Banegas

17 · M. Antunez

18 · C. Suazo

21 · C. J. Zuniga Bernardez

24 · S. Pozantes

26 · G. Perea

39 · M. Garcia

42 · R. Reyes

58 · O. Amador

Atletico Independiente

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Rodriguez

3 A. Ramirez

4 D. Herrera

7 N. Enamorado

8 F. J. Escoto Pineda

15 E. Arias

18 F. Yanez

21 A. Cabrera

27 S. Espinoza

28 D. Llorente

32 M. Techera

Coach · –

Substitutes

5 · C. Lopez

9 · A. Bodden

10 · L. Melendez

11 · G. Martinez

12 · M. Perello

14 · J. Fiallos

16 · C. S. Oscar Adonay

17 · S. Cruz

20 · E. Reyes

26 · E. Luna

29 · E. Marmol

30 · C. Vasquez

Our number · olancho winPublished 12 Oct 00:00

55% The market65%

Us55%

~~Market~~65%

We make Olancho a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · olancho win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 67% to 65% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Olancho win	55%	65%	−10
Draw	27%	21%	+6
Atletico Independiente win	19%	15%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	43%	63%	−20
Both teams to score	45%	58%	−13
Over 1.5 goals	70%	83%	−13
Over 3.5 goals	23%	43%	−20
Olancho or draw	81%	85%	−4
Olancho clean sheet	44%	–	–
Atletico Independiente clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%

0123450 10.0 6.7 3.1 1 13.4 12.3 4.8 2 11.2 9.1 3.7 3 6.0 4.8 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Olancho down, Atletico Independiente across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,103 Liga Nacional matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.2% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Olancho at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Atletico Independiente away: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Olancho, 0.82 for Atletico Independiente. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Liga Nacional

OLANCHO

WDLDDD1–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0

ATLETICO INDEPENDIENTE

DDLDWL1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CD Olimpia	9	+13	20
2	Real Espana	8	+9	18
3	CD Marathon	9	+8	18
4	CD Motagua	9	+4	16
5	Génesis	9	+3	11
6	Olancho	8	+1	11
7	Estrella Roja	8	−3	9
8	Atletico Independiente	8	−4	9
9	Lobos Upnfm	9	−5	9
10	Platense FC	9	−11	8
11	Atlético Choloma	9	−3	7
12	Juticalpa	9	−12	6