Lobos Upnfm v CD Olimpia prediction · Liga Nacional

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Lobos UpnfmDrawCD Olimpia

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:15

Before kick-off · Match result · CD Olimpia 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CD Olimpia are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lobos Upnfm 19%, draw 24%, CD Olimpia 57%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Lobos Upnfm v CD OlimpiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Lobos Upnfm win19%

Draw24%

CD Olimpia win57%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 23:15

RoundApertura · matchday 11

VenueEstadio Emilio Williams Agasse

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lobos Upnfm

CD Olimpia

7Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Nacional (Honduras)

Last match: 22 Oct · CONCACAF Central American Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	CD Olimpia	10	+14	23
8	Lobos Upnfm	10	−1	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cd olimpia winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

57% The market52%

Us57%

~~Market~~52%

We make CD Olimpia a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lobos Upnfm v CD Olimpia~~0.93 – 1.79

~~Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 23~~8 v 2

~~The market · CD Olimpia win~~52% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · CD Olimpia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lobos Upnfm win	19%	22%	−3
Draw	24%	26%	−2
CD Olimpia win	57%	52%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	51%	49%	+2
Both teams to score	51%	51%	0
Over 1.5 goals	76%	72%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	29%	29%	0
Lobos Upnfm or draw	43%	48%	−5
Lobos Upnfm clean sheet	17%	–	–
CD Olimpia clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 7.4 11.1 10.5 6.3 2.8 1 5.5 11.6 9.7 5.8 2.6 2 2.9 5.1 4.5 2.7 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lobos Upnfm down, CD Olimpia across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,114 Liga Nacional matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lobos Upnfm at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). CD Olimpia away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.93 goals for Lobos Upnfm, 1.79 for CD Olimpia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CDO 2–0 LOB · CDO 0–0 LOB · LOB 0–1 CDO · LOB 1–2 CDO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 29 Aug

LOBOS UPNFM

LLWWDW0–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 4–0

CD OLIMPIA

DWLWWW2–2 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Espana	11	+10	24
2	CD Olimpia	10	+14	23
3	CD Marathon	11	+9	22
4	CD Motagua	10	+6	19
5	Atlético Choloma	11	0	13
6	Olancho	11	0	13
7	Estrella Roja	11	−3	13
8	Lobos Upnfm	10	−1	12
9	Génesis	11	0	11
10	Atletico Independiente	11	−8	11
11	Platense FC	11	−14	8
12	Juticalpa	10	−13	6