Lobos Upnfm v CD Marathon prediction · Liga Nacional

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 05:30

Lobos Upnfm 0–0 CD Marathon CD MARATHON WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CD Marathon win~~47%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.786

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.775

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CD Marathon win at 47%.
1′KICK-OFF Lobos Upnfm v CD Marathon
37′Much as we predicted: CD Marathon was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 22–38–39
38′Much as we predicted: CD Marathon was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 22–39–39
45′HALF-TIME Lobos Upnfm 0–0 CD Marathon
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' CD Marathon win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was CD Marathon win 37%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' CD Marathon win: 47% at kick-off, 39% now
45′SECOND HALF Lobos Upnfm 0–0 CD Marathon
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' CD Marathon win: 47% at kick-off, 39% now
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' CD Marathon win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Lobos Upnfm · On: D. Carter · Off: M. Juan
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' CD Marathon win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was CD Marathon win 37%)
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' CD Marathon win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was CD Marathon win 37%)
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Lobos Upnfm · On: L. Hurtado · Off: J. Glavocic
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' CD Marathon win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was CD Marathon win 37%)
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' CD Marathon win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was CD Marathon win 37%)
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' CD Marathon · On: J. Bueso · Off: I. Castillo
76′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Lobos Upnfm
77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' CD Marathon · On: A. Elis · Off: N. Messiniti
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Lobos Upnfm
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Lobos Upnfm · On: M. Rodriguez · Off: S. Elvir
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Lobos Upnfm · On: A. Erazo · Off: Y. Hinestroza
91′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Lobos Upnfm · On: B. Lopez · Off: J. Ponce
FTFULL TIME Lobos Upnfm 0–0 CD Marathon
FTLobos Upnfm 0–0 CD Marathon · CD Marathon win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Lobos Upnfm win24%

Draw29%

CD Marathon win47%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 02:30

VenueEstadio Emilio Williams Agasse

Line-ups

Lobos Upnfm

CD Marathon

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Lobos Upnfm

CD Marathon

23Days since last match20

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	CD Marathon	8	+8	17
9	Lobos Upnfm	8	−5	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Lobos Upnfm

Formation not confirmed

12 A. Guity

20 E. Lopez

2 D. Suazo

3 G. J. Rodas Andrino

15 J. Glavocic

24 O. Elvir

25 M. Santos

11 S. Elvir

6 J. Ponce

10 Y. Hinestroza

32 M. Juan

Coach · Salomon Nazar

Substitutes

55 · D. Lagos

4 · J. Garcia

8 · J. Nunez

7 · L. Hurtado

13 · M. Rodriguez

26 · B. Lopez

16 · D. Carter

21 · A. Erazo

5 · A. Zuniga

CD Marathon

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Rougier

2 H. Figueroa

4 J. Rivera

16 F. E. Martinez Hernandez

19 J. Aguilera

22 C. Argueta

7 I. Castillo

8 T. A. Sorto Caballero

9 B. Farioli

72 Y. Moreno

11 N. Messiniti

Coach · Gabriel Rudman Silvio

Substitutes

31 · H. Juarez

3 · K. Bodden

14 · J. A. Arriaga Chavez

20 · J. Bueso

12 · Y. Mejia

13 · J. Fernandez

21 · O. Ramos

29 · C. Perez

43 · L. Montoya

56 · C. Gaido

74 · L. Carcamo

77 · A. Elis

Our number · cd marathon winPublished 11 Oct 04:11

47% The market43%

Us47%

~~Market~~43%

We make CD Marathon a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cd marathon win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 40% to 43% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lobos Upnfm win	24%	29%	−5
Draw	29%	29%	0
CD Marathon win	47%	43%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	41%	50%	−9
Both teams to score	46%	55%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	68%	73%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	20%	30%	−9
Lobos Upnfm or draw	53%	57%	−5
Lobos Upnfm clean sheet	25%	–	–
CD Marathon clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 10.8 13.0 9.6 4.5 1 8.3 13.3 8.7 4.1 2 4.2 5.8 4.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lobos Upnfm down, CD Marathon across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,102 Liga Nacional matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.1% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

20 previous meetings, 2.95 goals a meeting; 11 of 20 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lobos Upnfm at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). CD Marathon away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.92 goals for Lobos Upnfm, 1.40 for CD Marathon. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

20 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.95

~~Over 2.5~~11 of 20

~~Both scored~~14 of 20

~~Last meetings~~CDM 2–0 LOB · LOB 1–1 CDM · CDM 2–0 LOB · LOB 2–2 CDM

Form · last six in Liga Nacional

LOBOS UPNFM

DLLLWW2–2 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 2–0

CD MARATHON

WDWWWL1–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 5–0 · 1–0 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CD Olimpia	9	+13	20
2	Real Espana	8	+9	18
3	CD Marathon	8	+8	17
4	CD Motagua	9	+4	16
5	Génesis	9	+3	11
6	Olancho	8	+1	11
7	Estrella Roja	8	−3	9
8	Atletico Independiente	8	−4	9
9	Lobos Upnfm	8	−5	8
10	Platense FC	9	−11	8
11	Atlético Choloma	9	−3	7
12	Juticalpa	9	−12	6