Juticalpa v Atlético Choloma prediction · Liga Nacional

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 03:01

Juticalpa 1–2 Atlético Choloma JUTICALPA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Juticalpa win~~41%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.689

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.633

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Juticalpa win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Juticalpa 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–26–33
1′KICK-OFF Juticalpa v Atlético Choloma
21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Atlético Choloma
26′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Alvarado · Atlético Choloma
29′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Juticalpa
29′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Atlético Choloma
40′J. Quejada scores for Atlético Choloma on 37′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–23–65
40′⚽ GOAL · 37' Juticalpa 0–1 Atlético Choloma · J. Quejada
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Juticalpa win: 41% at kick-off, 12% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Atlético Choloma win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Juticalpa win 12%)
41′We said Juticalpa at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–23–65
42′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 12–23–65
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Juticalpa win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' H. Castillo · Atlético Choloma
45′HALF-TIME Juticalpa 0–1 Atlético Choloma
48′SECOND HALF Juticalpa 0–1 Atlético Choloma
51′We said Juticalpa at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
59′Atlético Choloma score on 57′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 1–6–93
59′⚽ GOAL · 57' Juticalpa 0–2 Atlético Choloma
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Juticalpa win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
60′We said Juticalpa at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–5–93
70′Juticalpa find the net on 70′. 1–2. 1–2 · 4–19–77
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Juticalpa 1–2 Atlético Choloma
71′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 3–18–78
76′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Atlético Choloma · On: O. Zamora · Off: G. Obed Mejia Machado
76′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Juticalpa · On: Y. Delgadillo · Off: M. Nunez
76′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Juticalpa · On: C. Rochez · Off: C. Altamirano
80′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Atlético Choloma · On: J. Nunez · Off: I. Arias
80′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Atlético Choloma · On: J. Barrios · Off: J. Canales
86′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Juticalpa · On: M. Canales · Off: J. Velasquez
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Juticalpa
FTFULL TIME Juticalpa 1–2 Atlético Choloma
FTJuticalpa 1–2 Atlético Choloma · Juticalpa win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Juticalpa are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Juticalpa 41%, draw 26%, Atlético Choloma 33%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Juticalpa v Atlético CholomaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Juticalpa win41%

Draw26%

Atlético Choloma win33%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 00:15

RoundApertura · matchday 10

VenueEstadio Juan Ramon Breve Vargas

Line-ups

Juticalpa

Atlético Choloma

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Juticalpa

Atlético Choloma

8Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga Nacional (Honduras)

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga Nacional (Honduras)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Atlético Choloma	9	−3	7
12	Juticalpa	9	−12	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Juticalpa

Formation not confirmed

35 E. Facusse

2 M. Nunez

20 R. Gonzalez

24 O. Barrios

27 W. Quaye

30 C. Sacaza

7 C. Altamirano

45 J. Velasquez

9 J. Rochez

39 J. Centeno

50 J. Galeas

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · L. Casildo

28 · A. Gomez

29 · O. Suazo

6 · C. Rochez

10 · M. Canales

14 · K. Kelly

16 · B. Chavez

17 · J. Padilla

32 · D. Monico

19 · Y. Delgadillo

33 · M. Reyes

Atlético Choloma

Formation not confirmed

24 J. Pineda

21 J. Capeluto

23 H. Castillo

4 A. Calderon

10 J. Canales

18 J. Quejada

7 I. Arias

11 Alvarado

9 L. Ferreira

25 G. Obed Mejia Machado

29 E. Florez

Coach · Hector Vargas

Substitutes

– · M. Orellana

2 · K. Alvarez

6 · J. Suazo

13 · A. Villatoro

34 · E. Herrera

28 · J. Barrios

8 · J. Nunez

40 · C. Ramirez

19 · O. Zamora

Our number · juticalpa winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market37%

Us41%

~~Market~~37%

We make Juticalpa a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Juticalpa v Atlético Choloma~~1.55 – 1.36

~~Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 6 v 7~~12 v 11

~~The market · Juticalpa win~~37% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Juticalpa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Juticalpa win	41%	37%	+4
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Atlético Choloma win	33%	35%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	55%	54%	+1
Both teams to score	59%	59%	0
Over 1.5 goals	79%	77%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	33%	33%	0
Juticalpa or draw	67%	65%	+2
Juticalpa clean sheet	26%	–	–
Atlético Choloma clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 6.3 6.7 5.1 2.3 1 7.8 12.1 7.7 3.5 2 6.5 8.8 5.9 2.7 3 3.4 4.6 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Juticalpa down, Atlético Choloma across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,107 Liga Nacional matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.6% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Juticalpa at home: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Atlético Choloma away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Juticalpa, 1.36 for Atlético Choloma. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ATL 1–1 JUT · JUT 1–0 ATL · ATL 2–2 JUT · JUT 3–2 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 22 Aug

JUTICALPA

LWLLWL2–5 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 1–2

ATLÉTICO CHOLOMA

WLDLWL2–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CD Olimpia	10	+14	23
2	CD Marathon	10	+9	21
3	Real Espana	10	+9	21
4	CD Motagua	9	+4	16
5	Olancho	10	0	12
6	Génesis	9	+3	11
7	Atletico Independiente	9	−4	10
8	Estrella Roja	9	−4	9
9	Lobos Upnfm	9	−5	9
10	Platense FC	9	−11	8
11	Atlético Choloma	9	−3	7
12	Juticalpa	9	−12	6