Génesis v Estrella Roja prediction · Liga Nacional

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 00:30

Génesis 1–2 Estrella Roja GÉNESIS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Génesis win~~48%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.858

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.802

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Génesis win at 48%.
1′KICK-OFF Génesis v Estrella Roja
2′Little has changed for our model: Génesis 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–26–25
10′Estrella Roja find the net on 10′. 0–1. 0–1 · 24–23–53
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Génesis 0–1 Estrella Roja
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Génesis win: 48% at kick-off, 24% now
10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Estrella Roja win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Génesis win 24%)
11′We said Génesis at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–23–53
17′Génesis find the net on 17′. 0–1 · 22–24–54
18′⚽ GOAL · 17' Génesis 1–1 Estrella Roja
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Génesis win: 48% at kick-off, 46% now
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Génesis win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Estrella Roja win 25%)
24′SUBSTITUTION · 16' Génesis · On: C. I. Arzu Zapata · Off: E. Alderete
30′Estrella Roja score on 29′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 18–25–57
30′⚽ GOAL · 29' Génesis 1–2 Estrella Roja
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Génesis win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Estrella Roja win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Génesis win 18%)
31′We said Génesis at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–2 · 18–25–57
31′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 18–25–57
41′We said Génesis at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–25–60
41′26′: O. Rosales on the scoresheet for Estrella Roja, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 14–25–60
43′PENALTY MISSED · 43' Estrella Roja
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Génesis
45′HALF-TIME Génesis 1–2 Estrella Roja
45′SECOND HALF Génesis 1–2 Estrella Roja
55′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Estrella Roja · On: V. Moreira · Off: J. Garcia
55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Estrella Roja
57′We said Génesis at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–24–67
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Génesis win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Génesis
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Estrella Roja
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Génesis
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Génesis
70′We said Génesis at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–75
71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Estrella Roja
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Génesis
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Estrella Roja
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Estrella Roja
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Génesis
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Estrella Roja
97′🟥 RED CARD · 90+7' Génesis
99′Génesis are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–2 · 0–2–98
FTFULL TIME Génesis 1–2 Estrella Roja
FTGénesis 1–2 Estrella Roja · Génesis win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Génesis are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Génesis 48%, draw 26%, Estrella Roja 25%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Génesis v Estrella RojaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Génesis win48%

Draw26%

Estrella Roja win25%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 22:00

RoundApertura · matchday 10

VenueEstadio Roberto Suazo Cordova

Line-ups

Génesis

Estrella Roja

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Génesis

Estrella Roja

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga Nacional (Honduras)

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga Nacional (Honduras)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Génesis	9	+3	11
10	Estrella Roja	9	−4	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Génesis

Formation not confirmed

31 R. A. Balanta

24 C. Fonseca

2 A. Vargas

13 J. Mosquera

12 Gabriel Araujo

15 E. Maldonado

10 W. Martinez

6 R. Sander

27 J. Figueroa

9 E. Alderete

18 J. Lacayo

Coach · Fernando Mira

Substitutes

1 · D. Rodriguez

3 · A. Galindo

44 · M. Gamboa

8 · J. Nieto

11 · B. Felix

16 · F. Sabillon

29 · A. Alvarado

66 · K. Perez

26 · C. I. Arzu Zapata

17 · D. Nunez

14 · C. Guillen

Estrella Roja

Formation not confirmed

28 J. Garcia

4 S. Licona

2 L. Juarez

15 J. Padilla

10 D. Duron

13 O. Rosales

23 E. Gomez

7 E. Duarte

11 S. Bermudez

30 C. Calix

18 N. Luna

Coach · Oscar Isaula

Substitutes

1 · V. Moreira

3 · E. Rizo

6 · R. Mayorquin

8 · J. Velasquez

20 · P. Gonzalez

9 · F. Lopez

12 · M. Garcia

14 · E. Munguia

16 · B. Rosales

17 · A. Avila

19 · J. Gutierrez

24 · R. Benitez

Our number · génesis winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 19:10 · locked at kick-off

48% The market45%

Us48%

~~Market~~45%

We make Génesis a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Génesis v Estrella Roja~~1.63 – 1.12

~~Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 9~~7 v 10

~~The market · Génesis win~~45% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Génesis win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Génesis win	48%	45%	+3
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Estrella Roja win	25%	28%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	52%	50%	+2
Both teams to score	54%	54%	0
Over 1.5 goals	76%	72%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	30%	29%	+1
Génesis or draw	75%	72%	+3
Génesis clean sheet	33%	–	–
Estrella Roja clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.4 6.5 4.0 1 9.8 12.2 6.4 2.4 2 8.5 9.3 5.2 3 4.6 5.1 2.8 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Génesis down, Estrella Roja across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,109 Liga Nacional matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.8% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Génesis at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Estrella Roja away: 1.00 scored, 2.25 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Génesis, 1.12 for Estrella Roja. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 22 Aug

GÉNESIS

DLWLDL1–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–1

ESTRELLA ROJA

WDLDLL5–2 · 2–2 · 0–5 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CD Olimpia	10	+14	23
2	CD Marathon	10	+9	21
3	Real Espana	10	+9	21
4	CD Motagua	10	+6	19
5	Olancho	10	0	12
6	Lobos Upnfm	10	−1	12
7	Génesis	9	+3	11
8	Atlético Choloma	10	−2	10
9	Atletico Independiente	10	−8	10
10	Estrella Roja	9	−4	9
11	Platense FC	10	−13	8
12	Juticalpa	10	−13	6