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Génesis v CD Olimpia

Génesis

0–1Full time

CD Olimpia

Liga Nacional · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Roberto Suazo Cordova

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 00:30

Génesis 0–1 CD Olimpia CD OLIMPIA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CD Olimpia win~~51%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.355

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.379

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CD Olimpia win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: CD Olimpia 51% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 23–25–52
1′KICK-OFF Génesis v CD Olimpia
3′Little has changed for our model: CD Olimpia 51% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 23–25–52
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Génesis 0–1 CD Olimpia
13′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Génesis
23′Y. Arboleda scores for CD Olimpia on 10′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–16–77
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' CD Olimpia win: 51% at kick-off, 77% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' CD Olimpia win: 51% at kick-off, 52% now
27′⚽ GOAL · 10' Génesis 0–1 CD Olimpia · Y. Arboleda
27′🟨 YELLOW · 13' M. Gamboa · Génesis
34′⚽ GOAL · 10' Génesis 0–1 CD Olimpia · Y. Arboleda
34′🟨 YELLOW · 13' M. Gamboa · Génesis
37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Génesis
39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Génesis
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' CD Olimpia win: 51% at kick-off, 77% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 48' CD Olimpia
45′HALF-TIME Génesis 0–1 CD Olimpia
46′SECOND HALF Génesis 0–1 CD Olimpia
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' CD Olimpia
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' CD Olimpia
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' CD Olimpia
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Génesis
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Génesis
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' CD Olimpia
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' CD Olimpia
FTGénesis 0–1 CD Olimpia · CD Olimpia win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Génesis win22%

Draw26%

CD Olimpia win51%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 22:00

Venue · Estadio Roberto Suazo Cordova

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Génesis

Formation not confirmed

31 R. A. Balanta

12 Gabriel Araujo

24 C. Fonseca

44 M. Gamboa

2 A. Vargas

15 E. Maldonado

8 R. Sander

10 W. Martinez

29 A. Alvarado

9 E. Alderete

66 K. Perez

Coach · Fernando Mira

Substitutes

1 · D. Rodriguez

3 · A. Galindo

13 · J. Mosquera

27 · J. Figueroa

– · J. Nieto

11 · B. Felix

16 · F. Sabillon

20 · M. Solano

18 · J. Lacayo

26 · C. I. Arzu Zapata

14 · C. Guillen

CD Olimpia

Formation not confirmed

22 O. Rodriguez

15 K. Guity

3 C. Bennett

2 E. Hernandez

12 C. Canales

18 R. Garcia

20 A. Maldonado

45 B. Cortes

7 I. Enriquez

26 D. Flores

19 Y. Arboleda

Coach · Eduardo Espinel

Substitutes

38 · R. Mejia

62 · Y. David

4 · E. Lobo

39 · A. Ortiz

6 · F. Garcia

23 · J. Alvarez

25 · D. Paguada

31 · N. Dibble

8 · E. Rodriguez

21 · K. Pena

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Génesis

Formation not confirmed

31 R. A. Balanta

12 Gabriel Araujo

24 C. Fonseca

44 M. Gamboa

2 A. Vargas

15 E. Maldonado

8 R. Sander

10 W. Martinez

29 A. Alvarado

9 E. Alderete

66 K. Perez

Coach · Fernando Mira

Substitutes

1 · D. Rodriguez

3 · A. Galindo

13 · J. Mosquera

27 · J. Figueroa

– · J. Nieto

11 · B. Felix

16 · F. Sabillon

20 · M. Solano

18 · J. Lacayo

26 · C. I. Arzu Zapata

14 · C. Guillen

CD Olimpia

Formation not confirmed

22 O. Rodriguez

15 K. Guity

3 C. Bennett

2 E. Hernandez

12 C. Canales

18 R. Garcia

20 A. Maldonado

45 B. Cortes

7 I. Enriquez

26 D. Flores

19 Y. Arboleda

Coach · Eduardo Espinel

Substitutes

38 · R. Mejia

62 · Y. David

4 · E. Lobo

39 · A. Ortiz

6 · F. Garcia

23 · J. Alvarez

25 · D. Paguada

31 · N. Dibble

8 · E. Rodriguez

21 · K. Pena

Our number · cd olimpia winPublished 10 Oct 22:04

51% The market50%

Us51%

~~Market~~50%

We make CD Olimpia a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.0–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cd olimpia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 51% to 50% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Génesis win	22%	23%	−1
Draw	26%	27%	−1
CD Olimpia win	51%	50%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	49%	49%	0
Both teams to score	51%	52%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	74%	72%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	27%	28%	−1
Génesis or draw	49%	50%	−2
Génesis clean sheet	20%	–	–
CD Olimpia clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 8.1 11.1 9.6 5.2 2.2 1 6.5 12.4 9.4 5.1 2.1 2 3.6 5.8 4.7 2.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Génesis down, CD Olimpia across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,100 Liga Nacional matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.9% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

14 previous meetings, 3.43 goals a meeting; 9 of 14 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Génesis at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). CD Olimpia away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.00 goals for Génesis, 1.63 for CD Olimpia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

14 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.43

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 14

~~Both scored~~6 of 14

~~Last meetings~~GEN 0–2 CDO · CDO 1–0 GEN · GEN 6–2 CDO · CDO 3–2 GEN

Form · last six in Liga Nacional

GÉNESIS

WDLWLD3–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 0–0

CD OLIMPIA

WDDWLW3–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Espana	8	+9	18
2	CD Olimpia	8	+12	17
3	CD Marathon	8	+8	17
4	CD Motagua	8	+3	13
5	Génesis	8	+4	11
6	Olancho	8	+1	11
7	Estrella Roja	8	−3	9
8	Atletico Independiente	8	−4	9
9	Lobos Upnfm	8	−5	8
10	Platense FC	9	−11	8
11	Atlético Choloma	8	−2	7
12	Juticalpa	9	−12	6