Estrella Roja v Real Espana prediction · Liga Nacional

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 00:30

Estrella Roja 0–1 Real Espana REAL ESPANA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Espana win~~44%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.467

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.407

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Espana win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Real Espana 44% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 30–25–45
1′KICK-OFF Estrella Roja v Real Espana
1′🟨 YELLOW · 2' Real Espana
2′Little has changed for our model: Real Espana 44% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 30–25–45
5′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Estrella Roja
10′⚽ GOAL · 12' Estrella Roja 0–0 Real Espana
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Estrella Roja 0–1 Real Espana
23′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Estrella Roja
39′SUBSTITUTION · 36' Real Espana · On: D. Vuelto · Off: A. Garcia
45′SECOND HALF Estrella Roja 0–1 Real Espana
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Estrella Roja · On: N. Luna · Off: J. Velasquez
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Estrella Roja · On: M. Garcia · Off: E. Duarte
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Estrella Roja · On: F. Lopez · Off: J. Gutierrez
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Real Espana
69′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Estrella Roja · On: S. Bermudez · Off: C. Calix
70′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Real Espana · On: M. Aceituno · Off: M. Arana
70′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Real Espana · On: D. Sayago · Off: E. Hernandez
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Estrella Roja · On: R. Benitez · Off: P. Gonzalez
79′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Estrella Roja
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Real Espana · On: D. Aparicio · Off: R. Osorto
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Real Espana · On: N. Cruz · Off: J. Benavidez
84′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Real Espana
FTFULL TIME Estrella Roja 0–1 Real Espana
FTEstrella Roja 0–1 Real Espana · Real Espana win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Estrella Roja win30%

Draw26%

Real Espana win44%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 22:00

VenueEstadio Marcelo Tinoco

Line-ups

Estrella Roja

Real Espana

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Estrella Roja

Real Espana

22Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Real Espana	8	+9	18
7	Estrella Roja	8	−3	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Estrella Roja

Formation not confirmed

28 J. Garcia

7 E. Duarte

4 S. Licona

2 L. Juarez

15 J. Padilla

8 J. Velasquez

30 C. Calix

20 P. Gonzalez

23 E. Gomez

10 D. Duron

19 J. Gutierrez

Coach · Oscar Isaula

Substitutes

1 · V. Moreira

3 · E. Rizo

11 · S. Bermudez

13 · O. Rosales

25 · E. Amador

9 · F. Lopez

– · M. Garcia

16 · B. Rosales

14 · E. Munguia

17 · A. Avila

18 · N. Luna

24 · R. Benitez

Real Espana

Formation not confirmed

22 L. Lopez

2 J. Ramos

5 F. Flores

6 D. Garcia

7 A. Garcia

10 J. Benavidez

11 E. Hernandez

25 M. Pereira

28 C. Mejia

36 R. Osorto

54 M. Arana

Coach · Jeaustin Campos Madriz

Substitutes

23 · R. Lopez

49 · H. Reyes

– · G. Ritacco

12 · N. Cruz

13 · M. Aceituno

18 · D. Vuelto

19 · D. Aparicio

30 · D. Sayago

35 · D. Zavala

39 · D. Cacho

55 · C. Vega

67 · M. Moya

Our number · real espana winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

44% The market48%

Us44%

~~Market~~48%

We make Real Espana a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · real espana win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 52% to 48% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Estrella Roja win	30%	25%	+4
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Real Espana win	44%	48%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	53%	52%	+1
Both teams to score	56%	55%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	76%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	31%	31%	0
Estrella Roja or draw	56%	52%	+4
Estrella Roja clean sheet	21%	–	–
Real Espana clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 6.9 8.8 7.4 3.9 1 6.8 12.2 9.0 4.7 2 4.7 7.1 5.5 2.9 3 3.0 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Estrella Roja down, Real Espana across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,102 Liga Nacional matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.1% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Estrella Roja at home: 2.25 scored, 1.75 conceded a game (last 4). Real Espana away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Estrella Roja, 1.57 for Real Espana. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Liga Nacional

ESTRELLA ROJA

DWDLDL2–2 · 5–2 · 2–2 · 0–5 · 2–2 · 0–2

REAL ESPANA

DDWWDW1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CD Olimpia	9	+13	20
2	Real Espana	8	+9	18
3	CD Marathon	8	+8	17
4	CD Motagua	9	+4	16
5	Génesis	9	+3	11
6	Olancho	8	+1	11
7	Estrella Roja	8	−3	9
8	Atletico Independiente	8	−4	9
9	Lobos Upnfm	8	−5	8
10	Platense FC	9	−11	8
11	Atlético Choloma	9	−3	7
12	Juticalpa	9	−12	6