Estrella Roja v Atletico Independiente prediction · Liga Nacional

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Estrella RojaDrawAtletico Independiente

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 01:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Estrella Roja 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Estrella Roja are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Estrella Roja 51%, draw 24%, Atletico Independiente 24%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Estrella Roja v Atletico IndependienteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Estrella Roja win51%

Draw24%

Atletico Independiente win24%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 01:00

RoundApertura · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Estrella Roja

Atletico Independiente

7Days since last match6

Last match: 24 Oct · Liga Nacional (Honduras)

Last match: 25 Oct · Liga Nacional (Honduras)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Estrella Roja	11	−3	13
10	Atletico Independiente	11	−8	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · estrella roja winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Estrella Roja a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Estrella Roja v Atletico Independiente~~1.81 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 11~~7 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Estrella Roja win	51%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Atletico Independiente win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Estrella Roja or draw	76%	–	–
Estrella Roja clean sheet	32%	–	–
Atletico Independiente clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 6.1 5.4 3.6 1 8.6 11.3 6.2 2.5 2 8.3 9.4 5.5 2.2 3 5.0 5.7 3.3 4 2.3 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Estrella Roja down, Atletico Independiente across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,114 Liga Nacional matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Estrella Roja at home: 1.80 scored, 1.60 conceded a game (last 5). Atletico Independiente away: 0.60 scored, 1.80 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for Estrella Roja, 1.17 for Atletico Independiente. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 5 Sept

ESTRELLA ROJA

LDLLWD0–5 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–3

ATLETICO INDEPENDIENTE

DWLDLD0–0 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Espana	11	+10	24
2	CD Olimpia	10	+14	23
3	CD Marathon	11	+9	22
4	CD Motagua	10	+6	19
5	Atlético Choloma	11	0	13
6	Olancho	11	0	13
7	Estrella Roja	11	−3	13
8	Lobos Upnfm	10	−1	12
9	Génesis	11	0	11
10	Atletico Independiente	11	−8	11
11	Platense FC	11	−14	8
12	Juticalpa	10	−13	6