CD Olimpia v Real Espana prediction · Liga Nacional

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 05:00

CD Olimpia 2–1 Real Espana CD OLIMPIA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CD Olimpia win~~55%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.302

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.464

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 37 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CD Olimpia win at 55%.
1′Little has changed for our model: CD Olimpia 55% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–24–20
1′KICK-OFF CD Olimpia v Real Espana
14′🟨 YELLOW · 14' CD Olimpia
33′SUBSTITUTION · 27' Real Espana · On: R. Lopez · Off: L. Lopez
37′🟨 YELLOW · 36' CD Olimpia
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' CD Olimpia win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
42′We said CD Olimpia at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 1–0 · 81–15–4
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' CD Olimpia 1–0 Real Espana
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' CD Olimpia win: 55% at kick-off, 81% now
43′CD Olimpia score on 42′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 81–15–4
44′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 81–15–4
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' CD Olimpia
45′HALF-TIME CD Olimpia 1–1 Real Espana
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' CD Olimpia win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Draw 38%)
45′SECOND HALF CD Olimpia 1–1 Real Espana
48′We said CD Olimpia at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 41%. 1–1 · 41–40–18
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' CD Olimpia 1–1 Real Espana
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' CD Olimpia win: 55% at kick-off, 41% now
49′Real Espana find the net on 45′. 1–1. 1–1 · 41–41–18
53′We said CD Olimpia at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–44–18
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was CD Olimpia win 39%)
55′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 83–14–3
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' CD Olimpia 2–1 Real Espana
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' CD Olimpia win: 55% at kick-off, 83% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' CD Olimpia win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 14%)
56′A goal for CD Olimpia on 55′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 83–14–3
63′We said CD Olimpia at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' CD Olimpia win: 55% at kick-off, 85% now
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Real Espana
66′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Real Espana · On: D. Vuelto · Off: J. Ramos
66′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Real Espana · On: D. Cacho · Off: M. Aceituno
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' CD Olimpia · On: Y. Arboleda · Off: K. Pena
67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' CD Olimpia · On: J. Jean-Baptiste · Off: R. Garcia
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Real Espana
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' CD Olimpia
76′We said CD Olimpia at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
78′SUBSTITUTION · 68' CD Olimpia · On: B. Cortes · Off: N. Dibble
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Real Espana · On: D. Aparicio · Off: R. Osorto
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Real Espana · On: D. Sayago · Off: A. Garcia
84′We said CD Olimpia at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' CD Olimpia win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' CD Olimpia
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' CD Olimpia
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Real Espana
90′2–1 at the end. Our 55% on CD Olimpia comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Real Espana
95′SUBSTITUTION · 81' CD Olimpia · On: D. Flores · Off: J. Benguche
95′SUBSTITUTION · 81' CD Olimpia · On: A. Maldonado · Off: J. Alvarez
95′🟨 YELLOW · 88' E. Menjivar · CD Olimpia
FTFULL TIME CD Olimpia 2–1 Real Espana
FTCD Olimpia 2–1 Real Espana · CD Olimpia win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CD Olimpia are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CD Olimpia 55%, draw 25%, Real Espana 19%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on CD Olimpia v Real EspanaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

CD Olimpia win55%

Draw25%

Real Espana win19%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 02:30

RoundApertura · matchday 10

VenueEstadio Nacional Chelato Ucles

Line-ups

CD Olimpia

Real Espana

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CD Olimpia

Real Espana

6Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga Nacional (Honduras)

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga Nacional (Honduras)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

CD Olimpia

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Menjivar

23 J. Alvarez

9 J. Benguche

3 C. Bennett

31 N. Dibble

6 F. Garcia

18 R. Garcia

15 K. Guity

8 E. Rodriguez

21 K. Pena

2 E. Hernandez

Coach · Eduardo Espinel

Substitutes

22 · O. Rodriguez

62 · Y. David

4 · E. Lobo

39 · A. Ortiz

20 · A. Maldonado

14 · J. Jean-Baptiste

24 · J. Bermudez

25 · D. Paguada

69 · E. Romero

45 · B. Cortes

26 · D. Flores

19 · Y. Arboleda

Real Espana

Formation not confirmed

22 L. Lopez

13 M. Aceituno

10 J. Benavidez

5 F. Flores

8 A. Garcia

6 D. Garcia

11 E. Hernandez

28 C. Mejia

36 R. Osorto

25 M. Pereira

2 J. Ramos

Coach · Jeaustin Campos Madriz

Substitutes

23 · R. Lopez

49 · H. Reyes

7 · G. Ritacco

17 · M. Alvarado

18 · D. Vuelto

19 · D. Aparicio

30 · D. Sayago

35 · D. Zavala

39 · D. Cacho

47 · R. Bodden

55 · C. Vega

Our number · cd olimpia winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 15 Oct 04:47 · locked at kick-off

55% The market44%

Us55%

~~Market~~44%

We make CD Olimpia a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CD Olimpia v Real Espana~~1.71 – 0.92

~~Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 23 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 20 v 21~~2 v 1

~~The market · CD Olimpia win~~44% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · CD Olimpia win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 55% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CD Olimpia win	55%	44%	+11
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Real Espana win	19%	29%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	49%	53%	−4
Both teams to score	50%	57%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	74%	75%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	27%	33%	−6
CD Olimpia or draw	81%	71%	+10
CD Olimpia clean sheet	40%	–	–
Real Espana clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 8.1 5.9 3.1 1 11.6 12.0 5.2 2 10.5 9.5 4.4 3 6.0 5.5 2.5 4 2.6 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CD Olimpia down, Real Espana across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,105 Liga Nacional matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.6% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CD Olimpia at home: 3.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Real Espana away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for CD Olimpia, 0.92 for Real Espana. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CDO 3–2 REA · REA 3–1 CDO · REA 3–2 CDO · CDO 1–1 REA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 23 Aug

CD OLIMPIA

DDWLWW1–1 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 1–0

REAL ESPANA

DWWDWW1–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Espana	9	+10	21
2	CD Olimpia	9	+13	20
3	CD Marathon	9	+8	18
4	CD Motagua	9	+4	16
5	Olancho	9	+1	12
6	Génesis	9	+3	11
7	Atletico Independiente	9	−4	10
8	Estrella Roja	9	−4	9
9	Lobos Upnfm	9	−5	9
10	Platense FC	9	−11	8
11	Atlético Choloma	9	−3	7
12	Juticalpa	9	−12	6