CD Motagua v Juticalpa prediction · Liga Nacional

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CD MotaguaDrawJuticalpa

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:00

Before kick-off · Match result · CD Motagua 77%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CD Motagua are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CD Motagua 77%, draw 15%, Juticalpa 8%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on CD Motagua v JuticalpaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

CD Motagua win77%

Draw15%

Juticalpa win8%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 21:00

RoundApertura · matchday 11

VenueEstadio Nacional Chelato Ucles

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CD Motagua

Juticalpa

2Days since last match8

Last match: 23 Oct · CONCACAF Central American Cup

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Nacional (Honduras)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	CD Motagua	10	+6	19
12	Juticalpa	10	−13	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cd motagua winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

77% The market72%

Us77%

~~Market~~72%

We make CD Motagua a 77% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.6–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CD Motagua v Juticalpa~~2.64 – 0.75

~~Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 19 v 6~~4 v 12

~~The market · CD Motagua win~~72% · ours 77%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · CD Motagua win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CD Motagua win	77%	72%	+5
Draw	15%	17%	−2
Juticalpa win	8%	11%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	65%	66%	−1
Both teams to score	49%	54%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	85%	85%	0
Over 3.5 goals	44%	46%	−2
CD Motagua or draw	92%	89%	+3
CD Motagua clean sheet	47%	–	–
Juticalpa clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.7%

0123450 3.9 2.2 1 8.6 7.1 2.5 2 11.7 8.7 3.3 3 10.2 7.6 2.9 4 6.8 5.0 5 3.6 2.7

under 2% 5% 12%+CD Motagua down, Juticalpa across0–5 goals a side shown (94.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,114 Liga Nacional matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 8 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CD Motagua at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Juticalpa away: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.64 goals for CD Motagua, 0.75 for Juticalpa. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~JUT 0–3 CDM · CDM 2–1 JUT · JUT 1–2 CDM · JUT 1–7 CDM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 29 Aug

CD MOTAGUA

WDWLWW2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–0

JUTICALPA

WLLWLL1–0 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Espana	11	+10	24
2	CD Olimpia	10	+14	23
3	CD Marathon	10	+9	21
4	CD Motagua	10	+6	19
5	Atlético Choloma	11	0	13
6	Olancho	11	0	13
7	Estrella Roja	11	−3	13
8	Lobos Upnfm	10	−1	12
9	Génesis	11	0	11
10	Atletico Independiente	10	−8	10
11	Platense FC	11	−14	8
12	Juticalpa	10	−13	6