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CD Motagua v Atlético Choloma

CD Motagua

2–1Full time

Atlético Choloma

Liga Nacional · SUN 11 OCT · Estadio Nacional Chelato Ucles

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 02:47

CD Motagua 2–1 Atlético Choloma CD MOTAGUA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CD Motagua win~~74%

~~The market said~~75%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.107

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.093

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CD Motagua win at 74%.
1′Much as we predicted: CD Motagua was 74% before kick-off and our model makes it 74% now. 0–0 · 74–16–10
1′KICK-OFF CD Motagua v Atlético Choloma
2′Much as we predicted: CD Motagua was 74% before kick-off and our model makes it 74% now. 0–0 · 74–16–10
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' CD Motagua 0–1 Atlético Choloma
15′⚽ GOAL · 14' CD Motagua 1–1 Atlético Choloma
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' CD Motagua 1–1 Atlético Choloma
18′J. Moya scores for CD Motagua on 17′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 70–19–11
19′J. Moya scores for CD Motagua on 17′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 69–20–11
19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Atlético Choloma
21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Atlético Choloma
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' CD Motagua
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' CD Motagua 2–1 Atlético Choloma
45′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Atlético Choloma
45′HALF-TIME CD Motagua 2–1 Atlético Choloma
46′SECOND HALF CD Motagua 2–1 Atlético Choloma
47′SECOND HALF CD Motagua 2–1 Atlético Choloma
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' CD Motagua · On: J. Portillo · Off: L. Vega
52′SUBSTITUTION · 50' Atlético Choloma · On: H. J. Nunez Ramirez · Off: E. Florez
66′SUBSTITUTION · 61' CD Motagua · On: R. Gomez · Off: D. Melendez
68′SUBSTITUTION · 61' CD Motagua · On: P. Cacho · Off: V. Marinacci Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Atlético Choloma · On: A. Fajardo · Off: K. Alvarez
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' CD Motagua · On: P. Cacho · Off: V. Marinacci
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Atlético Choloma
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Atlético Choloma
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' CD Motagua
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' CD Motagua
90′🟨 YELLOW · 95' CD Motagua
90′🟨 YELLOW · 95' J. Portillo · CD Motagua
FTFULL TIME CD Motagua 2–1 Atlético Choloma
FTCD Motagua 2–1 Atlético Choloma · CD Motagua win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

CD Motagua win74%

Draw17%

Atlético Choloma win10%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 00:15

Venue · Estadio Nacional Chelato Ucles

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

CD Motagua

Formation not confirmed

22 L. Ortiz

26 L. Crisanto

34 G. Sacaza

4 L. Vega

36 V. Marinacci

27 J. Macias

8 D. Melendez

5 O. Discua

23 A. Reyes

9 J. Moya

19 R. De Olivera

Coach · Javier Lopez

Substitutes

61 · F. Diaz

3 · P. Cacho

17 · J. Portillo

24 · J. Garcia

35 · C. Melendez

10 · R. Gomez

15 · A. Hernandez

30 · J. Miranda

33 · E. Izaguirre

80 · D. Oliva

14 · A. Barrios

21 · J. Batiz

Atlético Choloma

Formation not confirmed

24 J. Pineda

2 K. Alvarez

21 J. Capeluto

18 J. Quejada

23 H. Castillo

11 Alvarado

14 C. Madrid

10 J. Canales

29 E. Florez

19 O. Zamora

9 L. Ferreira

Coach · Hector Vargas

Substitutes

1 · D. Orellana

4 · A. Calderon

6 · J. Suazo

8 · H. J. Nunez Ramirez

25 · G. Obed Mejia Machado

34 · E. Herrera

40 · C. Ramirez

27 · A. Fajardo

20 · I. Arias

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

CD Motagua

Formation not confirmed

22 L. Ortiz

26 L. Crisanto

34 G. Sacaza

4 L. Vega

36 V. Marinacci

27 J. Macias

8 D. Melendez

5 O. Discua

23 A. Reyes

9 J. Moya

19 R. De Olivera

Coach · Javier Lopez

Substitutes

61 · F. Diaz

3 · P. Cacho

17 · J. Portillo

24 · J. Garcia

35 · C. Melendez

10 · R. Gomez

15 · A. Hernandez

30 · J. Miranda

33 · E. Izaguirre

80 · D. Oliva

14 · A. Barrios

21 · J. Batiz

Atlético Choloma

Formation not confirmed

24 J. Pineda

2 K. Alvarez

21 J. Capeluto

18 J. Quejada

23 H. Castillo

11 Alvarado

14 C. Madrid

10 J. Canales

29 E. Florez

19 O. Zamora

9 L. Ferreira

Coach · Hector Vargas

Substitutes

1 · D. Orellana

4 · A. Calderon

6 · J. Suazo

8 · H. J. Nunez Ramirez

25 · G. Obed Mejia Machado

34 · E. Herrera

40 · C. Ramirez

27 · A. Fajardo

20 · I. Arias

Our number · cd motagua winPublished 11 Oct 00:01

74% The market75%

Us74%

~~Market~~75%

We make CD Motagua a 74% chance to win. The market has them at 75%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.6–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cd motagua win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 71% to 75% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CD Motagua win	74%	75%	−2
Draw	17%	16%	+1
Atlético Choloma win	10%	8%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	65%	67%	−2
Both teams to score	52%	52%	0
Over 1.5 goals	85%	84%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	44%	48%	−4
CD Motagua or draw	90%	92%	−1
CD Motagua clean sheet	44%	–	–
Atlético Choloma clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.9%

0123450 4.0 2.4 1 8.3 7.7 3.0 2 10.9 9.0 3.8 3 9.2 7.6 3.2 4 5.9 4.9 2.0 5 3.1 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+CD Motagua down, Atlético Choloma across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,100 Liga Nacional matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.9% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CD Motagua at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Atlético Choloma away: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.55 goals for CD Motagua, 0.83 for Atlético Choloma. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CDM 5–1 ATL · ATL 1–3 CDM · CDM 2–1 ATL · ATL 0–3 CDM

Form · last six in Liga Nacional

CD MOTAGUA

LWWDWL1–3 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1

ATLÉTICO CHOLOMA

LWLDLW0–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Espana	8	+9	18
2	CD Olimpia	8	+12	17
3	CD Marathon	8	+8	17
4	CD Motagua	8	+3	13
5	Génesis	8	+4	11
6	Olancho	8	+1	11
7	Estrella Roja	8	−3	9
8	Atletico Independiente	8	−4	9
9	Lobos Upnfm	8	−5	8
10	Platense FC	9	−11	8
11	Atlético Choloma	8	−2	7
12	Juticalpa	9	−12	6