CD Marathon v Olancho prediction · Liga Nacional

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 03:00

CD Marathon 2–1 Olancho CD MARATHON WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CD Marathon win~~49%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.389

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.322

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CD Marathon win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: CD Marathon was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–28–22
1′KICK-OFF CD Marathon v Olancho
2′A goal for CD Marathon on 2′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–15–7
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' CD Marathon 1–0 Olancho
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' CD Marathon win: 49% at kick-off, 78% now
3′We published CD Marathon at 49%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–15–7
8′🟨 YELLOW · 7' CD Marathon
13′We published CD Marathon at 49%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' CD Marathon 2–0 Olancho
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' CD Marathon win: 49% at kick-off, 94% now
14′CD Marathon score on 13′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
21′We published CD Marathon at 49%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
31′SUBSTITUTION · 28' Olancho · On: S. Pozantes · Off: Y. A. Cabrera
45′HALF-TIME CD Marathon 2–0 Olancho
45′SECOND HALF CD Marathon 2–0 Olancho
48′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' Olancho
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Olancho · On: M. Antunez · Off: J. Delgado
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Olancho · On: D. Martinez · Off: H. Gomez
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Olancho · On: O. Padilla · Off: M. R. Ramirez Arauz
65′We published CD Marathon at 49%. Our model now makes it 86%. 2–1 · 86–13–2
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' CD Marathon 2–1 Olancho
66′Olancho find the net on 65′. 2–1. 2–1 · 86–13–1
67′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 86–12–1
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Olancho
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Olancho
76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' CD Marathon · On: A. Elis · Off: N. Messiniti
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' CD Marathon · On: C. Perez · Off: C. Argueta
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Olancho
88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Olancho · On: C. J. Zuniga Bernardez · Off: D. Rodriguez
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' CD Marathon · On: I. Castillo · Off: T. A. Sorto Caballero
89′SUBSTITUTION · 85' CD Marathon · On: J. Bueso · Off: D. Ramirez
93′SUBSTITUTION · 85' CD Marathon · On: J. Aguilera · Off: Y. Mejia
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' CD Marathon win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
FTFULL TIME CD Marathon 2–1 Olancho
FTCD Marathon 2–1 Olancho · CD Marathon win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CD Marathon are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CD Marathon 49%, draw 29%, Olancho 21%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on CD Marathon v OlanchoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

CD Marathon win49%

Draw29%

Olancho win21%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 00:15

RoundApertura · matchday 10

VenueEstadio Yankel Rosenthal

Line-ups

CD Marathon

Olancho

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CD Marathon

Olancho

4Days since last match4

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga Nacional (Honduras)

Last match: 12 Oct · Liga Nacional (Honduras)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	CD Marathon	9	+8	18
5	Olancho	9	+1	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

CD Marathon

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Rougier

4 J. Rivera

2 H. Figueroa

14 J. A. Arriaga Chavez

8 T. A. Sorto Caballero

10 D. Ramirez

9 B. Farioli

22 C. Argueta

11 N. Messiniti

12 Y. Mejia

16 S. Agurcia

Coach · Gabriel Rudman Silvio

Substitutes

31 · H. Juarez

3 · K. Bodden

19 · J. Aguilera

20 · J. Bueso

7 · I. Castillo

13 · J. Fernandez

21 · O. Ramos

29 · C. Perez

34 · N. Vargas

56 · C. Gaido

74 · L. Carcamo

77 · A. Elis

Olancho

Formation not confirmed

29 G. Argueta

2 O. Almendarez

33 N. Munoz

3 J. Lasso

7 D. Rodriguez

12 D. Andino

8 H. Gomez

23 J. Delgado

30 M. R. Ramirez Arauz

27 J. Bengtson

20 Y. A. Cabrera

Coach · Jairo Lopez Jhon

Substitutes

58 · O. Amador

5 · D. Martinez

16 · Y. Banegas

22 · R. Canavesio

24 · S. Pozantes

26 · G. Perea

15 · O. Padilla

39 · M. Garcia

11 · Joanderson

18 · C. Suazo

17 · M. Antunez

21 · C. J. Zuniga Bernardez

Our number · cd marathon winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

49% The market54%

Us49%

~~Market~~54%

We make CD Marathon a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CD Marathon v Olancho~~1.37 – 0.81

~~Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 23 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W0 D5 L1

~~Table places · points 18 v 12~~3 v 5

~~The market · CD Marathon win~~54% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · CD Marathon win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CD Marathon win	49%	54%	−5
Draw	29%	26%	+3
Olancho win	21%	21%	0
Over 2.5 goals	37%	52%	−15
Both teams to score	42%	53%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	65%	75%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	18%	32%	−14
CD Marathon or draw	79%	79%	0
CD Marathon clean sheet	45%	–	–
Olancho clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.7%

0123450 12.3 8.4 3.7 1 14.7 13.2 5.0 2 10.6 8.5 3.4 3 4.9 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CD Marathon down, Olancho across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,105 Liga Nacional matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.6% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CD Marathon at home: 1.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Olancho away: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for CD Marathon, 0.81 for Olancho. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CDM 0–2 OLA · OLA 1–1 CDM · CDM 2–1 OLA · OLA 0–3 CDM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 23 Aug

CD MARATHON

DWWWLD1–1 · 2–1 · 5–0 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 0–0

OLANCHO

DLDDDD1–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Espana	9	+10	21
2	CD Olimpia	9	+13	20
3	CD Marathon	9	+8	18
4	CD Motagua	9	+4	16
5	Olancho	9	+1	12
6	Génesis	9	+3	11
7	Atletico Independiente	9	−4	10
8	Estrella Roja	9	−4	9
9	Lobos Upnfm	9	−5	9
10	Platense FC	9	−11	8
11	Atlético Choloma	9	−3	7
12	Juticalpa	9	−12	6