Atletico Independiente v Lobos Upnfm prediction · Liga Nacional

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 05:01

Atletico Independiente 0–4 Lobos Upnfm ATLETICO INDEPENDIENTE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atletico Independiente win~~46%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.848

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.557

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atletico Independiente win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Atletico Independiente was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–28–26
1′KICK-OFF Atletico Independiente v Lobos Upnfm
45′HALF-TIME Atletico Independiente 0–2 Lobos Upnfm
47′SECOND HALF Atletico Independiente 0–2 Lobos Upnfm
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Atletico Independiente · On: D. Llorente · Off: F. Yanez
48′Lobos Upnfm find the net on 45′. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–8–90
48′We said Atletico Independiente at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–8–90
48′⚽ GOAL · 43' Atletico Independiente 0–2 Lobos Upnfm · D. Carter
48′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Atletico Independiente 0–2 Lobos Upnfm
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Atletico Independiente win: 46% at kick-off, 2% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+3' Lobos Upnfm win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Atletico Independiente win 2%)
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Lobos Upnfm
59′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Lobos Upnfm · On: L. Hurtado · Off: Y. Hinestroza
60′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–2 · 1–5–94
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Atletico Independiente
72′A goal for Lobos Upnfm on 72′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Atletico Independiente 0–3 Lobos Upnfm
73′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
78′Lobos Upnfm score on 78′ to make it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
78′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Lobos Upnfm · On: A. Zuniga · Off: D. Suazo
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Atletico Independiente 0–4 Lobos Upnfm
79′4 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Atletico Independiente · On: F. J. Escoto Pineda · Off: L. Melendez
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Atletico Independiente · On: D. Suazo · Off: N. Enamorado
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Lobos Upnfm · On: D. Lagos · Off: D. Carter
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Lobos Upnfm · On: C. Mejia · Off: M. Juan
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Lobos Upnfm · On: J. Glavocic · Off: S. Elvir
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Atletico Independiente
89′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Atletico Independiente · On: C. S. Oscar Adonay · Off: J. Fiallos
90′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Atletico Independiente · On: C. Vasquez · Off: S. Cruz
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Lobos Upnfm
FTFULL TIME Atletico Independiente 0–4 Lobos Upnfm
FTAtletico Independiente 0–4 Lobos Upnfm · Atletico Independiente win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atletico Independiente are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atletico Independiente 46%, draw 28%, Lobos Upnfm 26%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Atletico Independiente v Lobos UpnfmBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Atletico Independiente win46%

Draw28%

Lobos Upnfm win26%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 02:30

RoundApertura · matchday 10

VenueEstadio Carlos Miranda

Line-ups

Atletico Independiente

Lobos Upnfm

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atletico Independiente

Lobos Upnfm

7Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · Liga Nacional (Honduras)

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga Nacional (Honduras)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Atletico Independiente	9	−4	10
9	Lobos Upnfm	9	−5	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Atletico Independiente

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Rodriguez

4 D. Herrera

7 N. Enamorado

10 L. Melendez

14 J. Fiallos

15 E. Arias

17 S. Cruz

18 F. Yanez

21 A. Cabrera

26 E. Luna

27 S. Espinoza

Coach · –

Substitutes

– · C. Zelaya

8 · F. J. Escoto Pineda

11 · G. Martinez

12 · M. Perello

16 · C. S. Oscar Adonay

20 · E. Reyes

22 · D. Cortes

28 · D. Llorente

29 · E. Marmol

30 · C. Vasquez

– · C. Bonilla

– · D. Suazo

Lobos Upnfm

Formation not confirmed

12 A. Guity

2 D. Suazo

3 G. J. Rodas Andrino

4 J. Garcia

24 O. Elvir

10 Y. Hinestroza

25 M. Santos

11 S. Elvir

13 M. Rodriguez

16 D. Carter

32 M. Juan

Coach · Salomon Nazar

Substitutes

55 · D. Lagos

5 · A. Zuniga

15 · J. Glavocic

20 · E. Lopez

22 · C. Ardon

7 · L. Hurtado

8 · J. Nunez

19 · D. Lagos

26 · B. Lopez

77 · C. Mejia

21 · A. Erazo

23 · J. Castrillo

Our number · atletico independiente winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market33%

Us46%

~~Market~~33%

We make Atletico Independiente a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atletico Independiente v Lobos Upnfm~~1.43 – 0.99

~~Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 9~~7 v 9

~~The market · Atletico Independiente win~~33% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atletico Independiente win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletico Independiente win	46%	33%	+13
Draw	28%	28%	0
Lobos Upnfm win	26%	39%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	44%	51%	−7
Both teams to score	48%	56%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	70%	74%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	23%	32%	−9
Atletico Independiente or draw	74%	61%	+13
Atletico Independiente clean sheet	37%	–	–
Lobos Upnfm clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 9.9 8.1 4.4 1 11.9 13.2 6.1 2.1 2 9.0 8.8 4.4 3 4.3 4.2 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico Independiente down, Lobos Upnfm across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,108 Liga Nacional matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.9% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Atletico Independiente at home: 1.25 scored, 0.75 conceded a game (last 4). Lobos Upnfm away: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Atletico Independiente, 0.99 for Lobos Upnfm. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 22 Aug

ATLETICO INDEPENDIENTE

DLDWLD1–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 1–1

LOBOS UPNFM

LLLWWD1–4 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CD Olimpia	10	+14	23
2	CD Marathon	10	+9	21
3	Real Espana	10	+9	21
4	CD Motagua	9	+4	16
5	Olancho	10	0	12
6	Génesis	9	+3	11
7	Atletico Independiente	9	−4	10
8	Estrella Roja	9	−4	9
9	Lobos Upnfm	9	−5	9
10	Platense FC	9	−11	8
11	Atlético Choloma	9	−3	7
12	Juticalpa	9	−12	6