Atletico Independiente v CD Marathon prediction · Liga Nacional

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Atletico IndependienteDrawCD Marathon

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 02:30

Before kick-off · Match result · CD Marathon 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CD Marathon are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atletico Independiente 23%, draw 29%, CD Marathon 48%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Atletico Independiente v CD MarathonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Atletico Independiente win23%

Draw29%

CD Marathon win48%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 02:30

RoundApertura · matchday 11

VenueEstadio Carlos Miranda

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atletico Independiente

CD Marathon

7Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Nacional (Honduras)

Last match: 21 Oct · CONCACAF Central American Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	CD Marathon	10	+9	21
10	Atletico Independiente	10	−8	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cd marathon winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 25 Oct 00:45 · locked at kick-off

48% The market54%

Us48%

~~Market~~54%

We make CD Marathon a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atletico Independiente v CD Marathon~~0.89 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 21~~10 v 2

~~The market · CD Marathon win~~54% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · CD Marathon win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletico Independiente win	23%	20%	+3
Draw	29%	26%	+3
CD Marathon win	48%	54%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	40%	49%	−9
Both teams to score	45%	50%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	67%	72%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	20%	28%	−8
Atletico Independiente or draw	52%	46%	+6
Atletico Independiente clean sheet	25%	–	–
CD Marathon clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.4%

0123450 11.0 13.4 9.9 4.7 1 8.1 13.1 8.7 4.1 2 4.0 5.5 3.9 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico Independiente down, CD Marathon across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,114 Liga Nacional matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026/27 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atletico Independiente at home: 1.00 scored, 1.40 conceded a game (last 5). CD Marathon away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.89 goals for Atletico Independiente, 1.42 for CD Marathon. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026/27

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~CDM 1–0 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 29 Aug

ATLETICO INDEPENDIENTE

LDWLDL1–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 0–4

CD MARATHON

WWWLDW2–1 · 5–0 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CD Olimpia	10	+14	23
2	CD Marathon	10	+9	21
3	Real Espana	10	+9	21
4	CD Motagua	10	+6	19
5	Atlético Choloma	11	0	13
6	Olancho	11	0	13
7	Estrella Roja	11	−3	13
8	Lobos Upnfm	10	−1	12
9	Génesis	11	0	11
10	Atletico Independiente	10	−8	10
11	Platense FC	10	−13	8
12	Juticalpa	10	−13	6