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Atlético Choloma v Génesis

Atlético Choloma

3–1Full time

Génesis

Liga Nacional · SAT 24 OCT · Estadio Ruben Deras

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 00:34

Atlético Choloma 3–1 Génesis GÉNESIS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Génesis win~~37%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.636

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.659

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Génesis win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Génesis 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 35–28–37
1′KICK-OFF Atlético Choloma v Génesis
10′🟨 YELLOW · 9' Atlético Choloma
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Génesis
35′Atlético Choloma score on 35′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 67–22–11
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Atlético Choloma 1–0 Génesis
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Génesis win: 37% at kick-off, 11% now
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Atlético Choloma win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Génesis win 34%)
37′We said Génesis at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 1–0 · 67–22–11
37′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 67–22–11
42′Atlético Choloma find the net on 42′. 2–0. 2–0 · 90–7–2
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Atlético Choloma 2–0 Génesis
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Génesis win: 37% at kick-off, 2% now
43′We said Génesis at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
45′HALF-TIME Atlético Choloma 2–0 Génesis
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Génesis
47′SECOND HALF Atlético Choloma 2–0 Génesis
55′A goal for Atlético Choloma on 55′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Atlético Choloma 3–0 Génesis
56′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 99–1–0
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Génesis
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Génesis
59′Génesis score on 59′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 95–5–1
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Atlético Choloma 3–1 Génesis
60′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 95–4–1
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Génesis · On: F. Sabillon · Off: R. Sander
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Génesis · On: A. Alvarado · Off: J. Figueroa
73′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Atlético Choloma · On: I. Arias · Off: A. Villatoro
73′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Atlético Choloma · On: J. Barrios · Off: E. Florez
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Atlético Choloma · On: K. Alvarez · Off: L. Ferreira
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' J. Barrios · Atlético Choloma
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Génesis · On: W. Martinez · Off: D. Melendez
83′🟥 RED CARD · 83' Génesis
84′Génesis are down to ten from 83′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 3–1 · 100–0–0
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Atlético Choloma · On: G. Obed Mejia Machado · Off: O. Zamora
88′🟨 YELLOW · 82' C. Guillen · Génesis
88′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Atlético Choloma · On: G. Obed Mejia Machado · Off: O. Zamora
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Atlético Choloma
90′🟨 YELLOW · 87' I. Arias · Atlético Choloma
97′Génesis find the net on 90′. 3–2. 3–2 · 99–1–0
97′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Atlético Choloma 3–2 Génesis
FTFULL TIME Atlético Choloma 3–1 Génesis
FTAtlético Choloma 3–1 Génesis · Génesis win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Génesis just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Atlético Choloma 35%, draw 28%, Génesis 37%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Atlético Choloma v GénesisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Atlético Choloma win35%

Draw28%

Génesis win37%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 22:00

RoundApertura · matchday 11

VenueEstadio Ruben Deras

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atlético Choloma

Génesis

7Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Nacional (Honduras)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Génesis	10	+2	11
9	Atlético Choloma	10	−2	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · génesis winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:38 · locked at kick-off

37% The market39%

Us37%

~~Market~~39%

We make Génesis a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atlético Choloma v Génesis~~1.30 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 10 v 11~~9 v 8

~~The market · Génesis win~~39% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Génesis win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 37% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlético Choloma win	35%	34%	+1
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Génesis win	37%	39%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	49%	51%	−2
Both teams to score	54%	56%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	75%	74%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	28%	30%	−2
Atlético Choloma or draw	63%	61%	+2
Atlético Choloma clean sheet	26%	–	–
Génesis clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 8.0 8.8 6.4 2.9 1 8.4 13.1 8.2 3.7 2 6.0 8.0 5.3 2.4 3 2.6 3.5 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlético Choloma down, Génesis across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,111 Liga Nacional matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.7% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atlético Choloma at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Génesis away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Atlético Choloma, 1.35 for Génesis. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~GEN 2–0 ATL · ATL 1–2 GEN · GEN 0–0 ATL · GEN 1–0 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 29 Aug

ATLÉTICO CHOLOMA

LDLWLW1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–1

GÉNESIS

LWLDLL1–2 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CD Olimpia	10	+14	23
2	CD Marathon	10	+9	21
3	Real Espana	10	+9	21
4	CD Motagua	10	+6	19
5	Olancho	11	0	13
6	Estrella Roja	11	−3	13
7	Lobos Upnfm	10	−1	12
8	Génesis	10	+2	11
9	Atlético Choloma	10	−2	10
10	Atletico Independiente	10	−8	10
11	Platense FC	10	−13	8
12	Juticalpa	10	−13	6