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Xelajú v Municipal

Xelajú
1–0Full time
Municipal

Liga Nacional · SAT 24 OCT · Estadio Mario Camposeco

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 23:31
Xelajú 1–0 Municipal XELAJÚ WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Xelajú win44%
The market said40%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.467
The market’s Brier score0.533

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 27 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Xelajú win at 44%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Xelajú was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–29–27
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Xelajú v Municipal
  4. 8′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Xelajú
  5. 37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Municipal
  6. 39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Xelajú win 38%)
  7. 40′We published Xelajú at 44%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–18–5
  8. 40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Xelajú 1–0 Municipal
  9. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Xelajú win: 44% at kick-off, 77% now
  10. 40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Xelajú win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 41%)
  11. 42′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 77–18–5
  12. 43′A goal for Xelajú on 41′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–18–5
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Xelajú 1–0 Municipal
  14. 51′SECOND HALF Xelajú 1–0 Municipal
  15. 54′We published Xelajú at 44%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
  16. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Municipal
  17. 59′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Y. Y. Perez · Municipal
  18. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Municipal · On: A. Cabeza · Off: J. Martinez
  19. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Municipal · On: E. Lopez · Off: E. Elington
  20. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Xelajú · On: Y. Diaz · Off: O. de Leon
  21. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Xelajú win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
  22. 68′We published Xelajú at 44%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
  23. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Xelajú
  24. 70′🟥 RED CARD · 70' Xelajú
  25. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Municipal · On: J. Bantes · Off: J. Mendez
  26. 72′A red card for Xelajú on 71′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 86–12–1
  27. 78′We published Xelajú at 44%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  28. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Municipal · On: P. Altan · Off: Y. Y. Perez Corrected
  29. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Xelajú win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
  30. 85′We published Xelajú at 44%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  31. 90′Full time, 1–0. We called Xelajú at 44% — that one lands. 1–0 · 100–0–0
  32. 90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Municipal
  33. 91′Red cards for both sides: Xelajú down to ten, Municipal to ten. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 98–2–0
  34. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Municipal
  35. 96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Xelajú
  36. 98′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Municipal · On: O. Paniagua · Off: C. Hernandez
  37. 101′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Xelajú · On: J. Castaneda · Off: Y. Jaen
  38. 101′🟨 YELLOW · 90+11' Xelajú
  39. FTFULL TIME Xelajú 1–0 Municipal
  40. FTXelajú 1–0 Municipal · Xelajú win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Xelajú are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Xelajú 44%, draw 29%, Municipal 27%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Xelajú v MunicipalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Xelajú win44%
Draw29%
Municipal win27%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 21:00

RoundMatchday 16

VenueEstadio Mario Camposeco

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Xelajú

Municipal

4Days since last match3

Last match: 20 Oct · Liga Nacional (Guatemala)

Last match: 21 Oct · Liga Nacional (Guatemala)

3Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Municipal15+1027
7Xelajú15+721

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · xelajú winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 03:59 · locked at kick-off
44% The market40%
Us44%
Market40%

We make Xelajú a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Xelajú v Municipal1.29 – 0.94
Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 24 SeptW3 D0 L3 · W1 D4 L1
Table places · points 21 v 277 v 2
The market · Xelajú win40% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 20:27
Our probability · Xelajú win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Xelajú win44%40%+4
Draw29%32%−3
Municipal win27%28%−1
Over 2.5 goals38%44%−6
Both teams to score44%50%−6
Over 1.5 goals65%69%−4
Over 3.5 goals19%26%−7
Xelajú or draw73%72%+1
Xelajú clean sheet39%––
Municipal clean sheet28%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.6%
0123450 11.2 9.9 4.8 1 13.6 13.1 6.1 2 8.9 8.3 3.9 3 3.9 3.6 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Xelajú down, Municipal across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.20
Over 2.53 of 10
Both scored6 of 10
Last meetingsMUN 2–0 XEL · XEL 1–2 MUN · MUN 4–1 XEL · XEL 3–1 MUN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 24 Sept

XELAJÚ

WLWLWL4–0 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–3

MUNICIPAL

WDDLDD3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Antigua GFC15+829
2Municipal15+1027
3Guastatoya15+427
4Marquense15−124
5Mixco15+122
6Deportivo San Pedro15+122
7Xelajú15+721
8Aurora15021
9Malacateco15−518
10Cobán Imperial15−516
11Comunicaciones15−415
12Suchitepéquez15−168

Based on available league results before kick-off; standings may be incomplete.