Suchitepéquez v Deportivo San Pedro prediction · Liga Nacional

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 04:30

Suchitepéquez 1–1 Deportivo San Pedro SUCHITEPÉQUEZ WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Suchitepéquez win~~44%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.827

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.832

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Suchitepéquez win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Suchitepéquez 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–29
1′KICK-OFF Suchitepéquez v Deportivo San Pedro
25′Suchitepéquez find the net on 24′. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–19–9
25′We said Suchitepéquez at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–19–9
25′⚽ GOAL · 24' Suchitepéquez 1–0 Deportivo San Pedro
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Suchitepéquez win: 44% at kick-off, 72% now
27′Suchitepéquez ahead on 25′ through A. Zamorano. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–19–9
27′A goal for Deportivo San Pedro on 27′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 40–33–28
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Suchitepéquez 1–1 Deportivo San Pedro
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Suchitepéquez win: 44% at kick-off, 40% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Suchitepéquez win 35%)
45′HALF-TIME Suchitepéquez 1–1 Deportivo San Pedro
45′SECOND HALF Suchitepéquez 1–1 Deportivo San Pedro
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Suchitepéquez
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Suchitepéquez win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
48′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' Deportivo San Pedro
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Deportivo San Pedro · On: J. Navas · Off: A. Navarro
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Suchitepéquez · On: F. de Leon · Off: F. Gonzalez
52′We said Suchitepéquez at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 32–44–23
56′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–1 · 31–47–22
59′We said Suchitepéquez at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–50–21
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Deportivo San Pedro · On: I. dos Santos · Off: S. Colon
67′We said Suchitepéquez at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–57–18
67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Deportivo San Pedro · On: Y. A. Moran · Off: L. Calderon
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Deportivo San Pedro
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Suchitepéquez win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Suchitepéquez · On: A. Lezcano · Off: N. Cabrera
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Deportivo San Pedro · On: O. Salguero · Off: R. Gomez
74′We said Suchitepéquez at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–67–14
79′We said Suchitepéquez at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–75–11
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Suchitepéquez win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
80′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Julio Fajardo · Deportivo San Pedro
80′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Suchitepéquez · On: Carlos Artola · Off: Andres Lezcano Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Deportivo San Pedro · On: benedicto aldana · Off: Julio Fajardo Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Deportivo San Pedro · On: B. Aldana · Off: J. Fajardo
84′We said Suchitepéquez at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–7
91′We said Suchitepéquez at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Suchitepéquez win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Deportivo San Pedro
92′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Suchitepéquez · On: W. Diaz · Off: E. Silva
FTFULL TIME Suchitepéquez 1–1 Deportivo San Pedro
FTSuchitepéquez 1–1 Deportivo San Pedro · Suchitepéquez win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Suchitepéquez are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Suchitepéquez 44%, draw 26%, Deportivo San Pedro 29%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Suchitepéquez v Deportivo San PedroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Suchitepéquez win44%

Draw26%

Deportivo San Pedro win29%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 02:00

RoundMatchday 14

Line-ups

Suchitepéquez

Deportivo San Pedro

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Suchitepéquez

Deportivo San Pedro

5Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga Nacional (Guatemala)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Deportivo San Pedro	13	+3	21
12	Suchitepéquez	13	−15	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Suchitepéquez

Formation not confirmed

– K. Aguilar

11 N. Cabrera

13 A. Galindo

10 F. Gonzalez

21 M. Icute

99 F. A. Montano Cardenas

17 M. Rivas

1 J. Secaida

– H. Silva

4 V. G. Torres Chavez

18 A. Zamorano

Coach · –

Substitutes

– · C. Artola

8 · E. de Leon

70 · F. de Leon

14 · W. Diaz

6 · D. Herrera

7 · A. Lezcano

15 · C. Madrid

24 · J. Matul

– · A. Mejicanos

Deportivo San Pedro

Formation not confirmed

99 G. Aguila

2 D. Alvarez

– L. Calderon

8 J. Chacon

9 S. Colon

97 J. Fajardo

30 R. Folleco

15 R. Gomez

10 E. Macal

– R. Mendez

11 A. Navarro

Coach · –

Substitutes

– · B. Aldana

– · R. Ardon

7 · M. Ceballos

12 · V. Cruz

– · I. dos Santos

4 · M. Gaitan

48 · Y. A. Moran

77 · J. Navas

19 · O. Salguero

Our number · suchitepéquez winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 15 Oct 04:47 · locked at kick-off

44% The market50%

Us44%

~~Market~~50%

We make Suchitepéquez a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Suchitepéquez v Deportivo San Pedro~~1.45 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 9 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 21~~12 v 5

~~The market · Suchitepéquez win~~50% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Suchitepéquez win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Suchitepéquez win	44%	50%	−6
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Deportivo San Pedro win	29%	23%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	47%	49%	−2
Both teams to score	51%	52%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	72%	71%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	28%	−2
Suchitepéquez or draw	71%	77%	−6
Suchitepéquez clean sheet	33%	–	–
Deportivo San Pedro clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.0 8.5 4.9 1 11.0 12.3 6.8 2.6 2 8.0 8.8 4.9 3 3.9 4.3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Suchitepéquez down, Deportivo San Pedro across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,411 Liga Nacional matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.7% of games this season, across 82 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026/27 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Suchitepéquez at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo San Pedro away: 0.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Suchitepéquez, 1.13 for Deportivo San Pedro. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026/27

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~DEP 3–0 SUC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 9 Sept

SUCHITEPÉQUEZ

DLDLLD1–1 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 3–3

DEPORTIVO SAN PEDRO

WDDLLW2–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Antigua GFC	14	+5	26
2	Guastatoya	14	+4	26
3	Municipal	13	+10	25
4	Xelajú	14	+10	21
5	Deportivo San Pedro	13	+3	21
6	Marquense	14	−2	21
7	Mixco	13	−1	18
8	Aurora	14	−2	18
9	Cobán Imperial	14	−3	16
10	Comunicaciones	14	−3	15
11	Malacateco	14	−6	15
12	Suchitepéquez	13	−15	7