Suchitepéquez v Aurora prediction · Liga Nacional

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SuchitepéquezDrawAurora

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Suchitepéquez 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Suchitepéquez are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Suchitepéquez 49%, draw 24%, Aurora 26%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Suchitepéquez v AuroraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Suchitepéquez win49%

Draw24%

Aurora win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 23:30

RoundMatchday 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Suchitepéquez

Aurora

6Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga Nacional (Guatemala)

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Nacional (Guatemala)

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Aurora	15	0	21
12	Suchitepéquez	15	−16	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · suchitepéquez winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

49% The market51%

Us49%

~~Market~~51%

We make Suchitepéquez a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Suchitepéquez v Aurora~~1.67 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 19 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 21~~12 v 8

~~The market · Suchitepéquez win~~51% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Suchitepéquez win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Suchitepéquez win	49%	51%	−2
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Aurora win	26%	23%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	53%	50%	+3
Both teams to score	55%	52%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	77%	72%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	31%	30%	+1
Suchitepéquez or draw	74%	77%	−3
Suchitepéquez clean sheet	32%	–	–
Aurora clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.4 6.8 4.0 1 9.8 11.5 6.5 2.5 2 8.3 9.3 5.3 2.1 3 4.6 5.2 3.0 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Suchitepéquez down, Aurora across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,420 Liga Nacional matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.7% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2019/20 in every competition we cover, 2.89 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Suchitepéquez at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Aurora away: 1.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Suchitepéquez, 1.15 for Aurora. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2019/20

~~Goals a meeting~~2.89

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~6 of 9

~~Last meetings~~AUR 3–2 SUC · SUC 3–1 AUR · AUR 1–1 SUC · SUC 0–1 AUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 19 Sept

SUCHITEPÉQUEZ

DLLDDL2–2 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 1–2

AURORA

WLLWWW1–0 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Antigua GFC	16	+7	29
2	Municipal	16	+9	27
3	Guastatoya	16	+2	27
4	Mixco	16	+3	25
5	Xelajú	16	+8	24
6	Marquense	15	−1	24
7	Deportivo San Pedro	15	+1	22
8	Aurora	15	0	21
9	Comunicaciones	16	−3	18
10	Malacateco	15	−5	18
11	Cobán Imperial	15	−5	16
12	Suchitepéquez	15	−16	8