Municipal v Marquense prediction · Liga Nacional

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 02:30

Municipal 1–1 Marquense MUNICIPAL WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Municipal win~~75%

~~The market said~~74%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.255

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.239

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Municipal win at 75%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Municipal 75% before kick-off, 75% now. 0–0 · 75–17–7
1′KICK-OFF Municipal v Marquense
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Municipal 1–0 Marquense
13′⚽ GOAL · 14' Municipal 1–0 Marquense
20′Municipal ahead on 13′ through J. Bantes. 1–0. 1–0 · 92–7–1
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Municipal win: 75% at kick-off, 92% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Municipal win: 75% at kick-off, 75% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Municipal win: 75% at kick-off, 92% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Municipal win: 75% at kick-off, 75% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Municipal win: 75% at kick-off, 75% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Municipal win: 75% at kick-off, 92% now
24′Municipal ahead on 13′ through J. Bantes. 1–0. 1–0 · 92–7–1
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Municipal win: 75% at kick-off, 75% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Municipal win: 75% at kick-off, 92% now
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Marquense
33′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Municipal
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Municipal win: 75% at kick-off, 92% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Municipal win: 75% at kick-off, 92% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Municipal win: 75% at kick-off, 92% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Municipal win: 75% at kick-off, 92% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Municipal 2–0 Marquense · J. Bantes
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' Municipal 2–0 Marquense
45′SECOND HALF Municipal 1–0 Marquense
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Marquense · On: G. Gordillo · Off: E. Vasquez
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Marquense · On: D. Ochaeta · Off: G. A. Ramirez K.
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Municipal win: 75% at kick-off, 92% now
50′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Marquense
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Municipal 1–1 Marquense · J. Bantes
53′⚽ GOAL · 54' Municipal 1–1 Marquense
60′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Marquense
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' O. Linton · Marquense
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Municipal · On: P. Altan · Off: R. Munoz
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Municipal · On: C. Calderon · Off: C. Raymundo
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Municipal · On: J. Martinez · Off: J. Mendez
87′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Marquense · On: E. Velasquez · Off: E. Sanchez
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Municipal · On: C. Archila · Off: C. Hernandez
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Municipal · On: R. Barrientos · Off: J. Bantes
FTFULL TIME Municipal 1–1 Marquense
FTMunicipal 1–1 Marquense · Municipal win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Municipal win75%

Draw17%

Marquense win7%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 00:00

VenueEstadio Manuel Felipe Carrera

Line-ups

Municipal

Marquense

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Municipal

Marquense

2Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Municipal	11	+11	24
4	Marquense	12	−2	19

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Municipal

Formation not confirmed

12 K. Navarro

13 C. Estrada

19 C. Hernandez

32 E. Lopez

92 J. Mendez

16 J. Morales

7 R. Munoz

11 J. Bantes

43 Y. Y. Perez

5 C. Raymundo

4 N. Samayoa

Coach · Mario Acevedo

Substitutes

1 · B. Linares

20 · C. Archila

26 · R. Barrientos

31 · C. Calderon

52 · A. David

14 · J. Franco

10 · P. Altan

9 · J. Martinez

8 · R. Saravia

Marquense

Formation not confirmed

1 G. Gutierrez

6 J. Cano

17 D. Chuc

2 R. E. Corado Ruano

19 F. Escalante

12 G. A. Ramirez K.

79 O. Linton

24 C. Lopez

18 E. Sanchez

66 C. Santos

5 E. Vasquez

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · J. Cifuentes

30 · L. B. de

– · C. de Leon

20 · G. Gordillo

70 · Y. Hernandez

91 · A. Matta

11 · D. Ochaeta

99 · M. Rodas

8 · E. Velasquez

Our number · municipal winPublished 12 Oct 00:00

75% The market74%

Us75%

~~Market~~74%

We make Municipal a 75% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.1–0.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · municipal win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Municipal win	75%	74%	+1
Draw	17%	18%	0
Marquense win	7%	8%	0
Over 2.5 goals	48%	54%	−5
Both teams to score	34%	40%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	73%	76%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	27%	33%	−6
Municipal or draw	93%	92%	0
Municipal clean sheet	61%	–	–
Marquense clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 16.3%

0123450 7.5 3.7 1 15.6 7.6 2 16.3 8.0 3 11.5 5.6 4 6.2 3.0 5 2.7

under 2% 5% 12%+Municipal down, Marquense across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,402 Liga Nacional matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.1% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 1.64 goals a meeting; 3 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Municipal at home: 1.83 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Marquense away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.13 goals for Municipal, 0.49 for Marquense. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.64

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 11

~~Both scored~~3 of 11

~~Last meetings~~MAR 1–2 MUN · MAR 1–3 MUN · MUN 1–0 MAR · MAR 0–2 MUN

Form · last six in Liga Nacional

MUNICIPAL

WDWDWD1–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 1–1

MARQUENSE

LWDLWW0–4 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guastatoya	13	+4	25
2	Municipal	11	+11	24
3	Antigua GFC	12	+4	22
4	Marquense	12	−2	19
5	Xelajú	13	+9	18
6	Deportivo San Pedro	12	+2	18
7	Mixco	11	−1	16
8	Comunicaciones	12	−1	15
9	Aurora	13	−3	15
10	Malacateco	13	−5	15
11	Cobán Imperial	12	−3	13
12	Suchitepéquez	12	−15	6