Municipal v Guastatoya

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Municipal win at 69%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Municipal was 69% before kick-off and our model makes it 69% now. 0–0 · 69–21–10
3. 1′KICK-OFF Municipal v Guastatoya
4. 1′🟨 YELLOW · 1' Municipal
5. 12′A goal for Municipal on 12′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 89–9–2
6. 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Municipal 1–0 Guastatoya
7. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Municipal win: 69% at kick-off, 89% now
8. 13′We published Municipal at 69%. Our model now makes it 89%. 1–0 · 89–9–2
9. 18′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Guastatoya
10. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 89–9–2
11. 35′Guastatoya score on 35′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 57–32–11
12. 35′We said Municipal at 69%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 57%. 1–1 · 57–32–11
13. 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Municipal 1–1 Guastatoya
14. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Municipal win: 69% at kick-off, 57% now
15. 37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Guastatoya
16. 40′We said Municipal at 69%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 1–1 · 54–34–11
17. 43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Municipal
18. 43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Guastatoya
19. 45′HALF-TIME Municipal 1–1 Guastatoya
20. 46′SECOND HALF Municipal 1–1 Guastatoya
21. 49′We said Municipal at 69%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–40–11
22. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Municipal win: 69% at kick-off, 49% now
23. 56′We said Municipal at 69%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–45–10
24. 56′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Guastatoya · On: W. Pineda · Off: C. Alvarado
25. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Guastatoya
26. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Municipal · On: C. Hernandez · Off: J. Franco
27. 59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Municipal win 42%)
28. 62′We said Municipal at 69%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–51–10
29. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Municipal win: 69% at kick-off, 39% now
30. 63′Guastatoya find the net on 63′. 1–2. 1–2 · 10–28–62
31. 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Municipal 1–2 Guastatoya
32. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Municipal win: 69% at kick-off, 10% now
33. 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Guastatoya win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Draw 28%)
34. 64′We said Municipal at 69%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–28–62
35. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Municipal win: 69% at kick-off, 9% now
36. 65′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 9–28–63
37. 67′GOAL DISALLOWED · 67' Guastatoya
38. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Municipal win: 69% at kick-off, 35% now
39. 67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Guastatoya win 9%)
40. 68′We said Municipal at 69%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–58–9
41. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Municipal · On: J. Mendez · Off: R. Munoz
42. 74′We said Municipal at 69%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 27–66–7
43. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Municipal win: 69% at kick-off, 27% now
44. 76′We said Municipal at 69%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–70–7
45. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Municipal · On: Jefry Bantes · Off: Erik López Corrected
46. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Municipal · On: C. Archila · Off: P. Altan
47. 80′We said Municipal at 69%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 18–77–5
48. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Municipal
49. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Municipal win: 69% at kick-off, 18% now
50. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Guastatoya
51. 83′We said Municipal at 69%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–83–4
52. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Guastatoya · On: A. Tejeda · Off: V. Avalos
53. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Guastatoya · On: E. Palencia · Off: A. Lon
54. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Municipal win: 69% at kick-off, 9% now
55. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Guastatoya · On: B. Morales · Off: M. Sequen
56. 88′🟨 YELLOW · 55' A. Lon · Guastatoya
57. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Municipal
58. 92′We said Municipal at 69%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–95–1
59. FTFULL TIME Municipal 1–1 Guastatoya
60. FTMunicipal 1–1 Guastatoya · Municipal win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.