Mixco v Xelajú prediction · Liga Nacional

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MixcoDrawXelajú

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Mixco 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mixco are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mixco 46%, draw 27%, Xelajú 27%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Mixco v XelajúBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Mixco win46%

Draw27%

Xelajú win27%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 17

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mixco

Xelajú

4Days since last match5

Last match: 25 Oct · Liga Nacional (Guatemala)

Last match: 24 Oct · Liga Nacional (Guatemala)

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Mixco	16	+3	25
5	Xelajú	16	+8	24

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mixco winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Mixco a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mixco v Xelajú~~1.44 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 27 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 25 v 24~~4 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mixco win	46%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Xelajú win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Mixco or draw	73%	–	–
Mixco clean sheet	36%	–	–
Xelajú clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.9 8.6 4.5 1 12.2 12.6 6.3 2.2 2 8.8 8.9 4.5 3 4.3 4.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mixco down, Xelajú across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,420 Liga Nacional matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.7% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mixco at home: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Xelajú away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Mixco, 1.02 for Xelajú. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~XEL 4–1 MIX · MIX 3–1 XEL · XEL 2–1 MIX · XEL 1–2 MIX

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 27 Sept

MIXCO

WDDWDW3–1 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 3–1

XELAJÚ

LWLWLW2–3 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Antigua GFC	16	+7	29
2	Municipal	16	+9	27
3	Guastatoya	16	+2	27
4	Mixco	16	+3	25
5	Xelajú	16	+8	24
6	Marquense	15	−1	24
7	Deportivo San Pedro	15	+1	22
8	Aurora	15	0	21
9	Comunicaciones	16	−3	18
10	Malacateco	15	−5	18
11	Cobán Imperial	15	−5	16
12	Suchitepéquez	15	−16	8