Mixco v Municipal prediction · Liga Nacional

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 00:30

Mixco 0–0 Municipal MIXCO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mixco win~~37%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.754

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.752

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 2 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mixco win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Mixco 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–29–34
1′KICK-OFF Mixco v Municipal
FTFULL TIME Mixco 0–0 Municipal
FTMixco 0–0 Municipal · Mixco win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Mixco just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Mixco 37%, draw 29%, Municipal 34%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Mixco v MunicipalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 05:16 · locked at kick-off

Mixco win37%

Draw29%

Municipal win34%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 22:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mixco

Municipal

3Days since last match2

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Nacional (Guatemala)

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga Nacional (Guatemala)

3Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Municipal	14	+10	26
7	Mixco	14	+1	21

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mixco winFirst published 17 Oct 05:16 · updated 19 Oct 00:38 · locked at kick-off

37% The market33%

Us37%

~~Market~~33%

We make Mixco a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mixco v Municipal~~1.15 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 21 v 26~~7 v 3

~~The market · Mixco win~~33% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mixco win The market, margin stripped

Published at 36%, 37% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mixco win	37%	33%	+4
Draw	29%	29%	0
Municipal win	34%	38%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	39%	50%	−11
Both teams to score	45%	56%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	66%	72%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	19%	30%	−11
Mixco or draw	66%	62%	+4
Mixco clean sheet	34%	–	–
Municipal clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 11.0 11.4 6.3 2.3 1 12.0 13.4 7.2 2.6 2 7.0 7.6 4.1 3 2.7 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mixco down, Municipal across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,417 Liga Nacional matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.5% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mixco at home: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Municipal away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Mixco, 1.09 for Municipal. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MUN 2–0 MIX · MUN 5–0 MIX · MIX 0–2 MUN · MUN 3–0 MIX

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 13 Sept

MIXCO

WLWDDW3–2 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 3–1

MUNICIPAL

DWDDLD2–2 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Antigua GFC	15	+8	29
2	Guastatoya	15	+4	27
3	Municipal	14	+10	26
4	Marquense	15	−1	24
5	Deportivo San Pedro	15	+1	22
6	Xelajú	15	+7	21
7	Mixco	14	+1	21
8	Aurora	15	0	21
9	Malacateco	15	−5	18
10	Cobán Imperial	15	−5	16
11	Comunicaciones	15	−4	15
12	Suchitepéquez	15	−16	8