Mixco v Cobán Imperial prediction · Liga Nacional

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 00:30

Mixco 3–1 Cobán Imperial MIXCO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mixco win~~53%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.328

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.293

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mixco win at 53%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Mixco 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–26–21
1′KICK-OFF Mixco v Cobán Imperial
22′SUBSTITUTION · 7' Cobán Imperial · On: Y. Alvarez · Off: A. Cabrera
23′A goal for Mixco on 23′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–15–6
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Mixco 1–0 Cobán Imperial
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Mixco win: 53% at kick-off, 79% now
24′We said Mixco at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–15–6
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 79–15–5
31′We said Mixco at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–5
37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Cobán Imperial
45′HALF-TIME Mixco 1–0 Cobán Imperial
45′SECOND HALF Mixco 1–0 Cobán Imperial
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Mixco
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Mixco win: 53% at kick-off, 83% now
64′We said Mixco at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
70′We said Mixco at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Cobán Imperial
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Mixco 2–0 Cobán Imperial
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Mixco win: 53% at kick-off, 99% now
71′Mixco score on 70′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Mixco
79′We said Mixco at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Mixco
85′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 95–5–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Mixco 2–1 Cobán Imperial
86′Cobán Imperial find the net on 86′. 2–1. 2–1 · 96–4–0
90′3–1 at the end. Our 53% on Mixco comes in. 3–1 · 100–0–0
92′Mixco find the net on 90′. 2–1 · 98–2–0 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
92′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Mixco 3–1 Cobán Imperial
93′🟥 RED CARD · 90+3' Mixco
FTFULL TIME Mixco 3–1 Cobán Imperial
FTMixco 3–1 Cobán Imperial · Mixco win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mixco are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mixco 53%, draw 25%, Cobán Imperial 21%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Mixco v Cobán ImperialBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Mixco win53%

Draw25%

Cobán Imperial win21%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 22:00

RoundMatchday 15

Line-ups

Mixco

Cobán Imperial

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mixco

Cobán Imperial

3Days since last match3

Last match: 15 Oct · Liga Nacional (Guatemala)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Mixco	13	−1	18
9	Cobán Imperial	14	−3	16

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Mixco

Formation not confirmed

30 K. Moscoso

3 M. Moreno

5 D. Mendez

17 Cuero Fabian

15 M. Gomez

6 C. Jimenez

11 Y. Pozuelos

14 R. Marroquin

26 Jerry

18 J. Bolanos

9 L. Garcia

Coach · Fabricio Benitez

Substitutes

23 · M. Padilla

10 · G. Arce

33 · J. Sotomayor

16 · J. Urizar

19 · E. Zuniga

12 · J. Marquez

21 · J. Can

22 · K. Rocha

99 · N. Martinez

Cobán Imperial

Formation not confirmed

55 T. Casas

14 L. De Leon

16 S. Teni

22 B. Aldana

10 B. Calabrese

21 B. J. Leal Ramirez

30 E. Soto

31 D. Chen

28 Janderson

17 A. Cabrera

11 M. Moreira

Coach · Sebastian Bini

Substitutes

23 · J. Romero

12 · A. Ical

20 · S. Paredes

15 · U. Amaral

77 · J. Winter

80 · W. Amaya

9 · C. Winter

8 · Y. Alvarez

19 · K. Valdez

Our number · mixco winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 04:04 · locked at kick-off

53% The market56%

Us53%

~~Market~~56%

We make Mixco a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mixco v Cobán Imperial~~1.59 – 0.90

~~Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 9 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 18 v 16~~8 v 9

~~The market · Mixco win~~56% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mixco win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mixco win	53%	56%	−3
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Cobán Imperial win	21%	20%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	45%	56%	−11
Both teams to score	47%	56%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	71%	77%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	24%	35%	−11
Mixco or draw	79%	80%	−1
Mixco clean sheet	41%	–	–
Cobán Imperial clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.1%

0123450 8.7 7.4 3.4 1 13.1 11.9 5.3 2 10.5 9.3 4.1 3 5.6 4.9 2.2 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mixco down, Cobán Imperial across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,412 Liga Nacional matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.0% of games this season, across 83 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mixco at home: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Cobán Imperial away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Mixco, 0.90 for Cobán Imperial. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~COB 3–2 MIX · MIX 2–0 COB · COB 2–0 MIX · COB 1–1 MIX

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 9 Sept

MIXCO

LWLWDD0–2 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 3–3 · 1–1

COBÁN IMPERIAL

DDWWLW2–2 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Antigua GFC	14	+5	26
2	Guastatoya	14	+4	26
3	Municipal	13	+10	25
4	Deportivo San Pedro	15	+1	22
5	Xelajú	14	+10	21
6	Aurora	15	0	21
7	Marquense	14	−2	21
8	Mixco	13	−1	18
9	Cobán Imperial	14	−3	16
10	Comunicaciones	14	−3	15
11	Malacateco	14	−6	15
12	Suchitepéquez	14	−15	8