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Marquense v Suchitepéquez

Marquense
2–1Full time
Suchitepéquez

Liga Nacional · MON 19 OCT · Estadio Marquesa de la Ensenada

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 06:00
Marquense 2–1 Suchitepéquez MARQUENSE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Marquense win62%
The market said64%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.223
The market’s Brier score0.204

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 32 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Marquense win at 62%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Marquense 62% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 61–23–16
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Marquense v Suchitepéquez
  4. 27′A goal for Marquense on 27′. 0–0 · 54–29–16
  5. 28′We said Marquense at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–12–4
  6. 28′⚽ GOAL · 27' Marquense 1–0 Suchitepéquez
  7. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Marquense win: 62% at kick-off, 84% now
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 84–13–4
  9. 31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Suchitepéquez
  10. 38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Marquense
  11. 43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Suchitepéquez
  12. 45′🟥 RED CARD · 43' W. Diaz · Suchitepéquez
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Marquense 1–0 Suchitepéquez
  14. 45′SECOND HALF Marquense 1–0 Suchitepéquez
  15. 46′Suchitepéquez are down to ten from 43′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 84–13–3
  16. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Suchitepéquez · On: K. Aguilar · Off: J. Matul Corrected
  17. 48′We said Marquense at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–3
  18. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Suchitepéquez · On: fabricio gonzalez · Off: Alejandro Galindo Corrected
  19. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Marquense · On: Denilson Ocaheta · Off: Fernando Escalante Corrected
  20. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Suchitepéquez · On: C. Madrid · Off: F. A. Montano Cardenas
  21. 72′🟨 YELLOW · 70' D. Chuc · Marquense
  22. 73′We said Marquense at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
  23. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Marquense · On: E. Sanchez · Off: D. Grande
  24. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Suchitepéquez · On: E. de Leon · Off: M. Icute
  25. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Marquense win: 62% at kick-off, 92% now
  26. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Marquense
  27. 79′A goal for Suchitepéquez on 79′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 19–74–8
  28. 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Marquense 1–1 Suchitepéquez
  29. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Marquense win: 62% at kick-off, 19% now
  30. 79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Marquense win 19%)
  31. 80′We said Marquense at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 1–1 · 17–76–7
  32. 82′We said Marquense at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–80–6
  33. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Marquense win: 62% at kick-off, 11% now
  34. 86′We said Marquense at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–87–4
  35. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Marquense
  36. 90′2–1 at the end. Our 62% on Marquense comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
  37. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Marquense · On: L. B. de · Off: C. Lopez
  38. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 85' L. B. de · Marquense
  39. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Marquense · On: E. Velasquez · Off: Y. Hernandez
  40. 92′We said Marquense at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–2 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  41. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Marquense win: 62% at kick-off, 2% now
  42. 98′A goal for Marquense on 90′. 1–1 · 2–97–1 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  43. 98′🟨 YELLOW · 90+8' Marquense
  44. 101′We said Marquense at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–1 · 99–1–0
  45. 101′⚽ GOAL · 90+7' Marquense 2–1 Suchitepéquez · E. Sanchez
  46. 101′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+11' Marquense win: 62% at kick-off, 99% now
  47. 101′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+11' Marquense win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
  48. 103′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 99–1–0
  49. FTFULL TIME Marquense 2–1 Suchitepéquez
  50. FTMarquense 2–1 Suchitepéquez · Marquense win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Marquense are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Marquense 62%, draw 22%, Suchitepéquez 16%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Marquense v SuchitepéquezBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Marquense win62%
Draw22%
Suchitepéquez win16%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 03:10

RoundMatchday 15

VenueEstadio Marquesa de la Ensenada

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Marquense

Suchitepéquez

4Days since last match3

Last match: 15 Oct · Liga Nacional (Guatemala)

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga Nacional (Guatemala)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
8Marquense14−221
12Suchitepéquez14−158

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · marquense winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off
62% The market64%
Us62%
Market64%

We make Marquense a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Marquense v Suchitepéquez1.86 – 0.82
Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 13 SeptW2 D3 L1 · W0 D3 L3
Table places · points 21 v 88 v 12
The market · Marquense win64% · ours 62%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65%70% 13 OCT 05:3819 OCT 02:39
Our probability · Marquense win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Marquense win62%64%−2
Draw22%23%−1
Suchitepéquez win16%14%+2
Over 2.5 goals50%50%0
Both teams to score47%46%+1
Over 1.5 goals74%72%+2
Over 3.5 goals28%30%−2
Marquense or draw84%86%−2
Marquense clean sheet45%––
Suchitepéquez clean sheet16%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.7%
0123450 7.3 5.6 2.3 1 12.7 10.5 4.2 2 11.8 9.5 3.9 3 7.3 5.9 2.4 4 3.5 2.8 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Marquense down, Suchitepéquez across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.20
Over 2.58 of 10
Both scored5 of 10
Last meetingsSUC 1–2 MAR · SUC 3–2 MAR · MAR 1–0 SUC · MAR 3–0 SUC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 13 Sept

MARQUENSE

DLWWDD0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

SUCHITEPÉQUEZ

LDLLDD2–3 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 3–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Antigua GFC14+526
2Guastatoya14+426
3Municipal13+1025
4Deportivo San Pedro15+122
5Xelajú14+1021
6Mixco14+121
7Aurora15021
8Marquense14−221
9Cobán Imperial15−516
10Comunicaciones14−315
11Malacateco14−615
12Suchitepéquez14−158

Based on available league results before kick-off; standings may be incomplete.