Marquense v Mixco prediction · Liga Nacional

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 06:30

Marquense 1–1 Mixco MARQUENSE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Marquense win~~48%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.816

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.875

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 43 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Marquense win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Marquense was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–28–25
1′KICK-OFF Marquense v Mixco
5′4′ and it is 0–1: Mixco have scored. 0–1 · 22–25–53
5′⚽ GOAL · 4' Marquense 0–1 Mixco
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Marquense win: 48% at kick-off, 22% now
5′THE CALL SWINGS · 5' Mixco win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Marquense win 22%)
6′We said Marquense at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–25–53
15′We said Marquense at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–26–55
19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Marquense
25′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Marquense
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Marquense win: 48% at kick-off, 17% now
29′🟨 YELLOW · 19' C. Santos · Marquense
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 15–26–59
34′We said Marquense at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
42′🟥 RED CARD · 42' Marquense
42′PENALTY MISSED · 43' Marquense
45′A red card for Mixco on 38′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–1 · 11–26–64
45′HALF-TIME Marquense 0–1 Mixco
45′🟥 RED CARD · 45' Marquense
45′SECOND HALF Marquense 0–1 Mixco
45′🟨 YELLOW · 25' C. Santos · Marquense
45′🟥 RED CARD · 38' A. Yanes · Mixco
48′SUBSTITUTION · 43' Mixco · On: D. Mendez · Off: J. Can
49′We said Marquense at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–65
57′SUBSTITUTION · 43' Mixco · On: diego mendez · Off: J. Can Corrected
58′SUBSTITUTION · 43' Mixco · On: D. Mendez · Off: J. Can
66′We said Marquense at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
66′5′ and it is 0–1: C. Jimenez on the scoresheet for Mixco. 0–1 · 4–21–75
66′SUBSTITUTION · 43' Mixco · On: diego mendez · Off: J. Can Corrected
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Marquense
66′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Alexis Matta · Marquense
66′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Mixco
66′SUBSTITUTION · 44' Mixco · On: D. Mendez · Off: J. Can
66′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Marquense · On: E. Velasquez · Off: F. Escalante
66′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Marquense · On: A. Matta · Off: D. Ochaeta
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Marquense win: 48% at kick-off, 4% now
66′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Marquense · On: R. E. Corado Ruano · Off: M. Rodas
66′🟨 YELLOW · 70' K. Rocha · Mixco
66′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Marquense · On: G. A. Ramirez K. · Off: C. Lopez
66′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Mixco · On: K. Rocha · Off: M. Gomez
66′🟨 YELLOW · 26' C. Santos · Marquense
66′🟥 RED CARD · 39' A. Yanes · Mixco
66′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Marquense · On: A. Matta · Off: D. Ochaeta
66′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Marquense · On: E. Velasquez · Off: F. Escalante
66′🟨 YELLOW · 69' A. Matta · Marquense
66′🟨 YELLOW · 71' K. Rocha · Mixco
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Marquense 1–1 Mixco
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Marquense win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Mixco win 11%)
77′Marquense level it on 79′ through E. Sanchez. 1–1. 1–1 · 16–74–10
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Mixco · On: N. Martinez · Off: Y. Pozuelos
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Mixco · On: J. Urizar · Off: Jerry
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Marquense win: 48% at kick-off, 6% now
FTFULL TIME Marquense 1–1 Mixco
FTMarquense 1–1 Mixco · Marquense win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Marquense are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Marquense 48%, draw 27%, Mixco 25%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Marquense v MixcoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 15 Oct 03:01 · locked at kick-off

Marquense win48%

Draw27%

Mixco win25%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 04:00

VenueEstadio Marquesa de la Ensenada

Line-ups

Marquense

Mixco

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Marquense

Mixco

4Days since last match4

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Marquense	13	−2	20
7	Mixco	12	−1	17

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Marquense

Formation not confirmed

1 G. Gutierrez

17 D. Chuc

19 F. Escalante

9 D. Grande

70 Y. Hernandez

79 O. Linton

24 C. Lopez

11 D. Ochaeta

99 M. Rodas

66 C. Santos

5 E. Vasquez

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · G. A. Ramirez K.

2 · R. E. Corado Ruano

6 · J. Cano

13 · J. Cifuentes

30 · L. B. de

20 · G. Gordillo

91 · A. Matta

8 · E. Velasquez

18 · E. Sanchez

Mixco

Formation not confirmed

30 K. Moscoso

3 M. Moreno

37 A. Yanes

17 Cuero Fabian

15 M. Gomez

6 C. Jimenez

11 Y. Pozuelos

14 R. Marroquin

26 Jerry

18 J. Bolanos

21 J. Can

Coach · Fabricio Benitez

Substitutes

23 · M. Padilla

22 · K. Rocha

5 · D. Mendez

10 · G. Arce

– · E. Garcia

12 · J. Marquez

19 · E. Zuniga

16 · J. Urizar

99 · N. Martinez

Our number · marquense winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 03:01 · locked at kick-off

48% The market54%

Us48%

~~Market~~54%

We make Marquense a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Marquense v Mixco~~1.38 – 0.92

~~Last six in Liga Nacional~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 20 v 17~~5 v 7

~~The market · Marquense win~~54% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · marquense win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Marquense win	48%	54%	−6
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Mixco win	25%	20%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	40%	48%	−8
Both teams to score	45%	50%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	67%	72%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	20%	27%	−7
Marquense or draw	75%	80%	−5
Marquense clean sheet	40%	–	–
Mixco clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.9%

0123450 10.2 9.2 4.2 1 13.9 12.6 5.7 2 9.6 8.6 4.0 3 4.5 4.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Marquense down, Mixco across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,406 Liga Nacional matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.2% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 2.22 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Marquense at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Mixco away: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Marquense, 0.92 for Mixco. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.22

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~MIX 1–0 MAR · MIX 2–1 MAR · MAR 2–1 MIX · MAR 1–2 MIX

Form · last six in Liga Nacional

MARQUENSE

WDLWWD2–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1

MIXCO

DLWLWD1–1 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Municipal	12	+11	25
2	Antigua GFC	13	+5	25
3	Guastatoya	13	+4	25
4	Deportivo San Pedro	13	+3	21
5	Marquense	13	−2	20
6	Xelajú	13	+9	18
7	Mixco	12	−1	17
8	Comunicaciones	13	−2	15
9	Aurora	13	−3	15
10	Malacateco	13	−5	15
11	Cobán Imperial	13	−4	13
12	Suchitepéquez	13	−15	7