Marquense v Guastatoya prediction · Liga Nacional

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MarquenseDrawGuastatoya

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 02:10

Before kick-off · Match result · Marquense 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Marquense are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Marquense 46%, draw 29%, Guastatoya 25%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Marquense v GuastatoyaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Marquense win46%

Draw29%

Guastatoya win25%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 02:10

RoundMatchday 17

VenueEstadio Marquesa de la Ensenada

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Marquense

Guastatoya

11Days since last match11

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga Nacional (Guatemala)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Guastatoya	15	+4	27
5	Marquense	15	−1	24

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · marquense winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Marquense a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Marquense v Guastatoya~~1.29 – 0.88

~~Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 19 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 24 v 27~~5 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Marquense win	46%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Guastatoya win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Marquense or draw	75%	–	–
Marquense clean sheet	42%	–	–
Guastatoya clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.5%

0123450 11.7 9.9 4.5 1 14.5 13.0 5.6 2 9.5 8.2 3.6 3 4.1 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Marquense down, Guastatoya across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,420 Liga Nacional matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.7% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.88 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Marquense at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Guastatoya away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Marquense, 0.88 for Guastatoya. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.88

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~GUA 1–2 MAR · GUA 4–0 MAR · MAR 2–2 GUA · GUA 5–0 MAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 19 Sept

MARQUENSE

LWWDDW0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

GUASTATOYA

WWWLDD2–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Antigua GFC	15	+8	29
2	Municipal	16	+9	27
3	Guastatoya	15	+4	27
4	Xelajú	16	+8	24
5	Marquense	15	−1	24
6	Mixco	15	+1	22
7	Deportivo San Pedro	15	+1	22
8	Aurora	15	0	21
9	Malacateco	15	−5	18
10	Cobán Imperial	15	−5	16
11	Comunicaciones	15	−4	15
12	Suchitepéquez	15	−16	8