Home › Football › Liga Nacional › Malacateco v Guastatoya

Malacateco v Guastatoya

Malacateco

2–0Full time

Guastatoya

Liga Nacional · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 04:35

Malacateco 2–0 Guastatoya MALACATECO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Malacateco win~~49%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.388

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.389

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Malacateco win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Malacateco was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–27–24
1′KICK-OFF Malacateco v Guastatoya
2′Much as we predicted: Malacateco was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–27–24
9′🟨 YELLOW · 10' Guastatoya
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Guastatoya
45′SECOND HALF Malacateco 0–0 Guastatoya
48′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Guastatoya
51′⚽ GOAL · 52' Malacateco 0–0 Guastatoya
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Malacateco 1–0 Guastatoya
62′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Guastatoya
66′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Guastatoya
67′🟨 YELLOW · 63' V. Armas · Guastatoya
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Malacateco · On: E. Quinones · Off: R. Meneses
67′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Malacateco
77′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Guastatoya · On: Y. Aguilar · Off: W. Pineda
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Malacateco · On: F. Morales · Off: K. Ramirez
78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Malacateco · On: J. Trigueno · Off: J. Correa
78′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Guastatoya
80′⚽ GOAL · 81' Malacateco 1–0 Guastatoya
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Malacateco 2–0 Guastatoya · F. Morales
90′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Guastatoya · On: S. Garrido · Off: V. Armas
90′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Guastatoya · On: G. O. Cruz · Off: L. Macal
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Malacateco · On: A. Soto · Off: I. de Leon
91′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Malacateco · On: A. Soto · Off: I. de Leon
91′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Guastatoya
FTFULL TIME Malacateco 2–0 Guastatoya
FTMalacateco 2–0 Guastatoya · Malacateco win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Malacateco win49%

Draw27%

Guastatoya win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 02:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Malacateco

Formation not confirmed

– A. Guzman

– J. Castanon

– M. Chun

– J. Correa

– H. Cummings

– I. de Leon

– N. Andrade

– R. Meneses

– J. Ochoa

8 K. Ramirez

– D. Sanchez

Coach · Jose Guadalupe Cruz

Substitutes

24 · R. Garcia

14 · D. J. Guzman Miron

– · J. Longo

– · F. Morales

– · A. Morales

– · E. Quinones

– · C. Rendon

– · A. Soto

– · J. Trigueno

Guastatoya

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Escobar

88 C. Alvarado

23 V. Armas

22 V. Avalos

7 J. Almanza

16 L. Macal

4 B. Morales

26 W. Pineda

13 A. Tejeda

44 E. Yori

14 J. Estrada

Coach · Ariel Sena

Substitutes

8 · Y. Aguilar

33 · A. Contreras

25 · G. O. Cruz

6 · J. Estrada

19 · S. Garrido

30 · B. Hernandez

15 · H. Morales

35 · E. Palencia

10 · M. Sequen

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Malacateco

Formation not confirmed

– A. Guzman

– J. Castanon

– M. Chun

– J. Correa

– H. Cummings

– I. de Leon

– N. Andrade

– R. Meneses

– J. Ochoa

8 K. Ramirez

– D. Sanchez

Coach · Jose Guadalupe Cruz

Substitutes

24 · R. Garcia

14 · D. J. Guzman Miron

– · J. Longo

– · F. Morales

– · A. Morales

– · E. Quinones

– · C. Rendon

– · A. Soto

– · J. Trigueno

Guastatoya

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Escobar

88 C. Alvarado

23 V. Armas

22 V. Avalos

7 J. Almanza

16 L. Macal

4 B. Morales

26 W. Pineda

13 A. Tejeda

44 E. Yori

14 J. Estrada

Coach · Ariel Sena

Substitutes

8 · Y. Aguilar

33 · A. Contreras

25 · G. O. Cruz

6 · J. Estrada

19 · S. Garrido

30 · B. Hernandez

15 · H. Morales

35 · E. Palencia

10 · M. Sequen

Our number · malacateco winPublished 11 Oct 02:00

49% The market49%

Us49%

~~Market~~49%

We make Malacateco a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Malacateco win	49%	49%	0
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Guastatoya win	24%	22%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	42%	41%	+1
Both teams to score	45%	46%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	68%	66%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	21%	22%	−1
Malacateco or draw	76%	78%	−2
Malacateco clean sheet	40%	–	–
Guastatoya clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.8%

0123450 9.7 8.8 4.0 1 13.8 12.3 5.6 2 9.8 8.8 4.0 3 4.7 4.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Malacateco down, Guastatoya across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,400 Liga Nacional matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.1% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

18 previous meetings, 2.06 goals a meeting; 6 of 18 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Malacateco at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Guastatoya away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Malacateco, 0.91 for Guastatoya. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

18 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.06

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 18

~~Both scored~~7 of 18

~~Last meetings~~GUA 4–0 MAL · MAL 1–0 GUA · GUA 1–1 MAL · MAL 0–1 GUA

Form · last six in Liga Nacional

MALACATECO

WLDWLL2–0 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–2

GUASTATOYA

WDWWWW1–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guastatoya	12	+6	25
2	Municipal	11	+11	24
3	Antigua GFC	12	+4	22
4	Marquense	12	−2	19
5	Xelajú	12	+10	18
6	Deportivo San Pedro	12	+2	18
7	Mixco	11	−1	16
8	Comunicaciones	12	−1	15
9	Cobán Imperial	12	−3	13
10	Aurora	12	−4	12
11	Malacateco	12	−7	12
12	Suchitepéquez	12	−15	6