Malacateco v Comunicaciones prediction · Liga Nacional

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · abandoned

Malacateco are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Malacateco 51%, draw 26%, Comunicaciones 22%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Malacateco v ComunicacionesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · abandoned, not graded

Malacateco win51%

Draw26%

Comunicaciones win22%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 03:00

RoundMatchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Malacateco

Comunicaciones

6Days since last match7

Last match: 15 Oct · Liga Nacional (Guatemala)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Comunicaciones	14	−3	15
11	Malacateco	14	−6	15

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · malacateco winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · abandoned, not graded

51% The market44%

Us51%

~~Market~~44%

We make Malacateco a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Malacateco v Comunicaciones~~1.51 – 0.91

~~Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 15~~11 v 10

~~The market · Malacateco win~~44% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Malacateco win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Malacateco win	51%	44%	+7
Draw	26%	30%	−4
Comunicaciones win	22%	26%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	43%	41%	+2
Both teams to score	46%	46%	0
Over 1.5 goals	70%	65%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	23%	21%	+2
Malacateco or draw	78%	74%	+4
Malacateco clean sheet	41%	–	–
Comunicaciones clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.3%

0123450 9.3 7.9 3.7 1 13.3 12.3 5.5 2 10.1 9.1 4.1 3 5.1 4.6 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Malacateco down, Comunicaciones across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,417 Liga Nacional matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.5% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Malacateco at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Comunicaciones away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Malacateco, 0.91 for Comunicaciones. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~COM 4–2 MAL · MAL 1–0 COM · COM 3–2 MAL · MAL 2–0 COM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 13 Sept

MALACATECO

DWLLWL2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 1–2

COMUNICACIONES

DLWWLL2–2 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Antigua GFC	15	+8	29
2	Guastatoya	15	+4	27
3	Municipal	14	+10	26
4	Marquense	15	−1	24
5	Deportivo San Pedro	15	+1	22
6	Xelajú	15	+7	21
7	Mixco	14	+1	21
8	Aurora	15	0	21
9	Cobán Imperial	15	−5	16
10	Comunicaciones	14	−3	15
11	Malacateco	14	−6	15
12	Suchitepéquez	15	−16	8