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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Liga Nacional › Malacateco v Aurora

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Malacateco v Aurora

Malacateco
00:00Upcoming
Aurora

Liga Nacional · THU 29 OCT

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MalacatecoDrawAurora
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 00:00
Before kick-off · Match result · Malacateco 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Malacateco are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Malacateco 57%, draw 24%, Aurora 19%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Malacateco v AuroraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Malacateco win57%
Draw24%
Aurora win19%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 00:00

RoundMatchday 17

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Malacateco

Aurora

8Days since last match11

Last match: 21 Oct · Liga Nacional (Guatemala)

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Nacional (Guatemala)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
8Aurora15021
10Malacateco15−518

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · malacateco winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
57% The market–
Us57%

We make Malacateco a 57% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Malacateco v Aurora1.71 – 0.86
Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 19 SeptW3 D0 L3 · W4 D0 L2
Table places · points 18 v 2110 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Malacateco win57%––
Draw24%––
Aurora win19%––
Over 2.5 goals47%––
Both teams to score47%––
Over 1.5 goals73%––
Over 3.5 goals26%––
Malacateco or draw81%––
Malacateco clean sheet42%––
Aurora clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.9%
0123450 8.0 6.5 2.9 1 12.9 11.3 4.8 2 11.1 9.5 4.1 3 6.3 5.4 2.3 4 2.8 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Malacateco down, Aurora across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting1.43
Over 2.51 of 7
Both scored2 of 7
Last meetingsAUR 1–0 MAL · MAL 1–1 AUR · AUR 1–0 MAL · AUR 2–1 MAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 19 Sept

MALACATECO

WLLWLW1–0 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–0

AURORA

WLLWWW1–0 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Antigua GFC16+729
2Municipal16+927
3Guastatoya15+427
4Xelajú16+824
5Marquense15−124
6Mixco15+122
7Deportivo San Pedro15+122
8Aurora15021
9Comunicaciones16−318
10Malacateco15−518
11Cobán Imperial15−516
12Suchitepéquez15−168

Based on available league results before kick-off; standings may be incomplete.