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Model 1.2

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Guastatoya v Mixco

Guastatoya
1–3Full time
Mixco

Liga Nacional · SUN 25 OCT

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 05:00
Guastatoya 1–3 Mixco GUASTATOYA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Guastatoya win55%
The market said54%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.004
The market’s Brier score1.023

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 25 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Guastatoya win at 55%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Guastatoya was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–26–20
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Guastatoya v Mixco
  4. 19′Guastatoya find the net on 19′. 0–0 · 50–30–20
  5. 20′We published Guastatoya at 55%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–14–5
  6. 20′⚽ GOAL · 19' Guastatoya 1–0 Mixco
  7. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Guastatoya win: 55% at kick-off, 80% now
  8. 21′20′: V. Avalos on the scoresheet for Guastatoya, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 80–14–5
  9. 23′Mixco find the net on 22′. 1–1. 1–1 · 49–31–20
  10. 23′⚽ GOAL · 22' Guastatoya 1–1 Mixco
  11. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Guastatoya win: 55% at kick-off, 49% now
  12. 27′A goal for Mixco on 27′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 20–27–52
  13. 27′We said Guastatoya at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 1–2 · 20–27–52
  14. 27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Guastatoya 1–2 Mixco
  15. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Guastatoya win: 55% at kick-off, 20% now
  16. 27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Mixco win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Guastatoya win 48%)
  17. 30′We said Guastatoya at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–28–53
  18. 31′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 19–28–53
  19. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Guastatoya win: 55% at kick-off, 15% now
  20. 43′We said Guastatoya at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–28–58
  21. 45′HALF-TIME Guastatoya 1–2 Mixco
  22. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 38' A. Yanes · Mixco
  23. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' J. Almanza · Guastatoya
  24. 46′SECOND HALF Guastatoya 1–2 Mixco
  25. 56′We said Guastatoya at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–26–64
  26. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Guastatoya · On: Y. Aguilar · Off: J. Estrada
  27. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Guastatoya · On: W. Pineda · Off: M. Sequen
  28. 65′🟨 YELLOW · 63' J. Estrada · Guastatoya
  29. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Mixco · On: J. Urizar · Off: C. Jimenez
  30. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Guastatoya · On: V. Armas · Off: B. Morales
  31. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Guastatoya win: 55% at kick-off, 5% now
  32. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Mixco · On: Garcia · Off: J. Can
  33. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Mixco · On: Y. Pozuelos · Off: J. Segura
  34. 70′We said Guastatoya at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–75
  35. 89′Mixco score on 89′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  36. 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Guastatoya 1–3 Mixco
  37. 90′4 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  38. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Mixco
  39. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Guastatoya
  40. FTFULL TIME Guastatoya 1–3 Mixco
  41. FTGuastatoya 1–3 Mixco · Guastatoya win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Guastatoya are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Guastatoya 55%, draw 26%, Mixco 20%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Guastatoya v MixcoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Guastatoya win55%
Draw26%
Mixco win20%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 02:10

RoundMatchday 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Guastatoya

Mixco

6Days since last match4

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga Nacional (Guatemala)

Last match: 21 Oct · Liga Nacional (Guatemala)

3Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Guastatoya15+427
6Mixco15+122

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · guastatoya winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
55% The market54%
Us55%
Market54%

We make Guastatoya a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Guastatoya v Mixco1.58 – 0.84
Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 19 SeptW3 D2 L1 · W2 D3 L1
Table places · points 27 v 223 v 6
The market · Guastatoya win54% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 18 OCT 01:2325 OCT 01:57
Our probability · Guastatoya win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 55% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Guastatoya win55%54%+1
Draw26%27%−1
Mixco win20%19%+1
Over 2.5 goals44%45%−1
Both teams to score45%47%−2
Over 1.5 goals70%70%0
Over 3.5 goals23%26%−3
Guastatoya or draw80%81%−1
Guastatoya clean sheet43%––
Mixco clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.8%
0123450 9.2 7.3 3.2 1 13.8 11.9 4.9 2 11.0 9.2 3.9 3 5.8 4.9 2.1 4 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Guastatoya down, Mixco across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting1.90
Over 2.52 of 10
Both scored3 of 10
Last meetingsMIX 4–2 GUA · MIX 1–0 GUA · GUA 2–0 MIX · GUA 1–0 MIX

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 19 Sept

GUASTATOYA

WWWLDD2–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

MIXCO

LWDDWD0–1 · 3–1 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Antigua GFC15+829
2Municipal16+927
3Guastatoya15+427
4Xelajú16+824
5Marquense15−124
6Mixco15+122
7Deportivo San Pedro15+122
8Aurora15021
9Malacateco15−518
10Cobán Imperial15−516
11Comunicaciones15−415
12Suchitepéquez15−168

Based on available league results before kick-off; standings may be incomplete.