Guastatoya v Antigua GFC prediction · Liga Nacional

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 05:30

Guastatoya 1–1 Antigua GFC GUASTATOYA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Guastatoya win~~48%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.863

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.665

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Guastatoya win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Guastatoya 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–25–27
1′KICK-OFF Guastatoya v Antigua GFC
12′We said Guastatoya at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–24–54
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Guastatoya 0–1 Antigua GFC
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Guastatoya win: 48% at kick-off, 22% now
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Antigua GFC win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Guastatoya win 22%)
15′A goal for Antigua GFC on 13′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 21–24–54
17′SUBSTITUTION · 14' Guastatoya · On: B. Morales · Off: N. Lovato
24′We said Guastatoya at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–25–56
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Guastatoya win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 17–25–58
39′We said Guastatoya at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' B. Morales · Guastatoya
45′SECOND HALF Guastatoya 0–1 Antigua GFC
49′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Guastatoya
49′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Antigua GFC
49′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Antigua GFC
51′🟨 YELLOW · 49' E. Camargo · Antigua GFC
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' A. Maziero · Antigua GFC
55′We said Guastatoya at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–67
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Guastatoya 1–1 Antigua GFC
60′59′ and it is 1–1: J. Estrada on the scoresheet for Guastatoya. 1–1 · 31–49–20
60′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Guastatoya · On: Y. Aguilar · Off: A. Tejeda
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Guastatoya win: 48% at kick-off, 31% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Antigua GFC win 20%)
62′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Antigua GFC · On: K. J. Lopez · Off: E. Camargo
63′We said Guastatoya at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–52–19
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Guastatoya win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Antigua GFC · On: D. Fernandez · Off: W. Fajardo
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Antigua GFC · On: S. Garzaro · Off: J. Espinoza
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Guastatoya win: 48% at kick-off, 17% now
79′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Antigua GFC · On: A. Garcia · Off: O. Castellanos
79′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Antigua GFC · On: J. Franco · Off: A. Maziero
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Guastatoya · On: W. Pineda · Off: A. Contreras
86′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Guastatoya · On: V. Armas · Off: B. Morales Corrected
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Guastatoya win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Guastatoya
91′🟨 YELLOW · 91' M. Sequen · Guastatoya
92′We said Guastatoya at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 1–1 · 3–94–2
93′🟥 RED CARD · 93' Guastatoya
93′🟥 RED CARD · 95' Antigua GFC
95′Antigua GFC are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 2–97–1
97′🟨 YELLOW · 97' Antigua GFC
FTFULL TIME Guastatoya 1–1 Antigua GFC
FTGuastatoya 1–1 Antigua GFC · Guastatoya win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Guastatoya are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Guastatoya 48%, draw 25%, Antigua GFC 27%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Guastatoya v Antigua GFCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 15 Oct 01:31 · locked at kick-off

Guastatoya win48%

Draw25%

Antigua GFC win27%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 02:00

Line-ups

Guastatoya

Antigua GFC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Guastatoya

Antigua GFC

4Days since last match3

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Antigua GFC	13	+5	25
3	Guastatoya	13	+4	25

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Guastatoya

Formation not confirmed

88 C. Alvarado

22 V. Avalos

1 R. Escobar

14 J. Estrada

32 B. Lemus

17 A. Lon

18 N. Lovato

10 M. Sequen

13 A. Tejeda

44 E. Yori

33 A. Contreras

Coach · Ariel Sena

Substitutes

23 · V. Armas

19 · S. Garrido

30 · B. Hernandez

16 · L. Macal

4 · B. Morales

15 · H. Morales

35 · E. Palencia

26 · W. Pineda

8 · Y. Aguilar

Antigua GFC

Formation not confirmed

77 E. Camargo

4 J. Carbonell

17 O. Castellanos

19 J. Espinoza

81 W. Fajardo

7 J. Galvez

15 A. Maziero

1 L. Moran

21 A. Robinson

6 J. Rosales

– S. Zuniga

Coach · Mauricio Tapia

Substitutes

12 · J. Ardon

24 · D. Fernandez

22 · J. Franco

5 · A. Garcia

8 · S. Garzaro

34 · K. J. Lopez

72 · J. E. Moreno Alfaro

27 · D. Palencia

54 · S. Sagastume

Our number · guastatoya winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 01:31 · locked at kick-off

48% The market40%

Us48%

~~Market~~40%

We make Guastatoya a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Guastatoya v Antigua GFC~~1.57 – 1.10

~~Last six in Liga Nacional~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 25 v 25~~3 v 2

~~The market · Guastatoya win~~40% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · guastatoya win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Guastatoya win	48%	40%	+8
Draw	25%	34%	−9
Antigua GFC win	27%	26%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	50%	40%	+9
Both teams to score	52%	48%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	74%	66%	+9
Over 3.5 goals	28%	23%	+5
Guastatoya or draw	73%	74%	−1
Guastatoya clean sheet	34%	–	–
Antigua GFC clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 7.1 7.7 4.2 1 10.9 11.9 6.5 2.4 2 8.5 9.2 5.1 3 4.5 4.8 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Guastatoya down, Antigua GFC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,406 Liga Nacional matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.2% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

27 previous meetings, 2.37 goals a meeting; 13 of 27 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Guastatoya at home: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Antigua GFC away: 1.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Guastatoya, 1.10 for Antigua GFC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

27 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.37

~~Over 2.5~~13 of 27

~~Both scored~~10 of 27

~~Last meetings~~ANT 2–0 GUA · GUA 3–0 ANT · ANT 2–0 GUA · GUA 0–3 ANT

Form · last six in Liga Nacional

GUASTATOYA

DWWWWL1–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–2

ANTIGUA GFC

WLLLDW3–2 · 0–4 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Municipal	12	+11	25
2	Antigua GFC	13	+5	25
3	Guastatoya	13	+4	25
4	Deportivo San Pedro	13	+3	21
5	Marquense	13	−2	20
6	Xelajú	13	+9	18
7	Mixco	12	−1	17
8	Comunicaciones	13	−2	15
9	Aurora	13	−3	15
10	Malacateco	13	−5	15
11	Cobán Imperial	13	−4	13
12	Suchitepéquez	13	−15	7