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Model 1.2

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Deportivo San Pedro v Malacateco

Deportivo San Pedro
21:10Upcoming
Malacateco

Liga Nacional · SUN 25 OCT

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Deportivo San PedroDrawMalacateco
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:10
Before kick-off · Match result · Deportivo San Pedro 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo San Pedro are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo San Pedro 54%, draw 26%, Malacateco 20%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Deportivo San Pedro v MalacatecoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo San Pedro win54%
Draw26%
Malacateco win20%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 21:10

RoundMatchday 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportivo San Pedro

Malacateco

7Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Nacional (Guatemala)

Last match: 21 Oct · Liga Nacional (Guatemala)

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Deportivo San Pedro15+122
9Malacateco15−518

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportivo san pedro winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 22 Oct 03:59 · locked at kick-off
54% The market58%
Us54%
Market58%

We make Deportivo San Pedro a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Deportivo San Pedro v Malacateco1.56 – 0.82
Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 20 SeptW1 D2 L3 · W3 D0 L3
Table places · points 22 v 187 v 9
The market · Deportivo San Pedro win58% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 19 OCT 01:3725 OCT 01:57
Our probability · Deportivo San Pedro win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Deportivo San Pedro win54%58%−4
Draw26%26%0
Malacateco win20%17%+3
Over 2.5 goals42%47%−5
Both teams to score44%48%−4
Over 1.5 goals69%71%−2
Over 3.5 goals22%28%−6
Deportivo San Pedro or draw80%83%−3
Deportivo San Pedro clean sheet44%––
Malacateco clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.3%
0123450 9.7 7.5 3.2 1 14.3 11.8 4.8 2 11.2 9.0 3.7 3 5.9 4.7 4 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo San Pedro down, Malacateco across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026/27
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored0 of 1
Last meetingsMAL 2–0 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 20 Sept

DEPORTIVO SAN PEDRO

DLLWDL1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–3

MALACATECO

WLLWLW1–0 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Antigua GFC15+829
2Municipal16+927
3Guastatoya15+427
4Xelajú16+824
5Marquense15−124
6Mixco15+122
7Deportivo San Pedro15+122
8Aurora15021
9Malacateco15−518
10Cobán Imperial15−516
11Comunicaciones15−415
12Suchitepéquez15−168

Based on available league results before kick-off; standings may be incomplete.