Comunicaciones v Aurora prediction · Liga Nacional

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 02:30

Comunicaciones 1–2 Aurora COMUNICACIONES WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Comunicaciones win~~62%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.149

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.095

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 41 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Comunicaciones win at 62%.
1′Much as we predicted: Comunicaciones was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 62–22–16
1′KICK-OFF Comunicaciones v Aurora
20′GOAL DISALLOWED · 20' Comunicaciones
21′⚽ GOAL · 22' Comunicaciones 1–0 Aurora
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Comunicaciones 1–0 Aurora
21′GOAL DISALLOWED · 21' Comunicaciones
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Comunicaciones 1–0 Aurora
23′SUBSTITUTION · 21' Aurora · On: J. Lemus · Off: C. Flores
27′SUBSTITUTION · 21' Aurora · On: J. Lemus · Off: C. Flores
31′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Comunicaciones
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Comunicaciones 1–1 Aurora
34′🟨 YELLOW · 30' K. Espino · Comunicaciones
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Comunicaciones 1–2 Aurora
40′🟥 RED CARD · 41' Comunicaciones
41′37′ and it is 1–2: Aurora have scored. 1–2 · 20–29–51
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Comunicaciones win: 62% at kick-off, 20% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Aurora win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Comunicaciones win 20%)
43′🟥 RED CARD · 43' Comunicaciones
44′🟥 RED CARD · 41' D. Santis · Comunicaciones
44′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Aurora
45′SECOND HALF Comunicaciones 1–2 Aurora
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Comunicaciones · On: A. de la Cruz · Off: B. Castaneda
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Aurora · On: R. Hernandez · Off: J. Grajeda
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Comunicaciones · On: A. Ortiz · Off: K. Espino
52′We said Comunicaciones at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–29–57
54′A red card for Comunicaciones on 41′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–2 · 18–29–53
56′We said Comunicaciones at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 1–2 · 18–29–53
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Comunicaciones win: 62% at kick-off, 12% now
58′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 18–29–53
59′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Comunicaciones
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' S. Camacho · Comunicaciones
62′We said Comunicaciones at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–27–63
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Aurora · On: H. Del Cid · Off: V. Urias
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Comunicaciones · On: E. Cruz Martin · Off: N. Garcia
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Aurora · On: J. Rodriguez · Off: L. Aguilar
73′We said Comunicaciones at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–22–74
78′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Comunicaciones · On: O. Duarte · Off: S. Camacho
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Comunicaciones win: 62% at kick-off, 2% now
80′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Comunicaciones
80′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Aurora
81′🟨 YELLOW · 75' J. Osorio · Comunicaciones
81′🟨 YELLOW · 76' H. Del Cid · Aurora
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Aurora · On: E. Ibarguen · Off: H. Morales
83′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Comunicaciones · On: E. Lemus · Off: D. Bradley
86′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Comunicaciones
90′🟨 YELLOW · 87' A. de la Cruz · Comunicaciones
92′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Aurora
95′🟨 YELLOW · 92' E. Ibarguen · Aurora
FTFULL TIME Comunicaciones 1–2 Aurora
FTComunicaciones 1–2 Aurora · Comunicaciones win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Comunicaciones are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Comunicaciones 62%, draw 22%, Aurora 16%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Comunicaciones v AuroraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 23:38 · locked at kick-off

Comunicaciones win62%

Draw22%

Aurora win16%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 00:00

VenueEstadio Doroteo Guamuch Flores

Line-ups

Comunicaciones

Aurora

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Comunicaciones

Aurora

3Days since last match4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Comunicaciones	13	−2	15
9	Aurora	13	−3	15

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Comunicaciones

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Perez

4 K. Espino

7 B. Castaneda

8 P. M. Dantaz Paredes

13 S. Robles

16 D. Santis

31 D. Bradley

32 L. N. Olivera Moreira

33 J. Osorio

36 S. Camacho

77 N. Garcia

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · E. Cruz Martin

19 · A. de la Cruz

– · A. E. Diaz Bran

– · J. Ramirez

27 · O. Duarte

– · Guerra Brian

25 · E. Lemus

11 · A. Ortiz

– · D. Prada

Aurora

Formation not confirmed

22 L. Sanchez

4 C. Monterroso

27 C. Flores

3 M. Acosta

15 K. Garcia

18 J. Grajeda

57 L. Aguilar

10 J. Vivas

17 D. Bajan

31 V. Urias

13 H. Morales

Coach · Saul Phillip

Substitutes

2 · L. Cardona

29 · H. Del Cid

25 · A. Diaz

67 · R. Hernandez

11 · E. Ibarguen

5 · J. Lemus

1 · D. Navas

7 · J. Rodriguez

9 · D. Ruiz

Our number · comunicaciones winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 14 Oct 23:38 · locked at kick-off

62% The market58%

Us62%

~~Market~~58%

We make Comunicaciones a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Comunicaciones v Aurora~~1.86 – 0.80

~~Last six in Liga Nacional~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 15 v 15~~8 v 9

~~The market · Comunicaciones win~~58% · ours 62%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · comunicaciones win The market, margin stripped

Published at 63%, 62% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Comunicaciones win	62%	58%	+4
Draw	22%	26%	−4
Aurora win	16%	17%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	49%	46%	+3
Both teams to score	46%	46%	0
Over 1.5 goals	74%	70%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	28%	26%	+1
Comunicaciones or draw	84%	83%	+1
Comunicaciones clean sheet	45%	–	–
Aurora clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.1%

0123450 7.3 5.7 2.3 1 13.1 10.3 4.1 2 12.1 9.5 3.8 3 7.5 5.9 2.3 4 3.5 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Comunicaciones down, Aurora across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,406 Liga Nacional matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.2% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 1.80 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Comunicaciones at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Aurora away: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.86 goals for Comunicaciones, 0.80 for Aurora. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~AUR 3–1 COM · COM 1–0 AUR · AUR 2–0 COM · AUR 0–0 COM

Form · last six in Liga Nacional

COMUNICACIONES

LDLWWL0–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 3–0 · 1–2

AURORA

LLWLLW1–2 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Municipal	12	+11	25
2	Antigua GFC	13	+5	25
3	Guastatoya	13	+4	25
4	Deportivo San Pedro	13	+3	21
5	Marquense	13	−2	20
6	Xelajú	13	+9	18
7	Mixco	12	−1	17
8	Comunicaciones	13	−2	15
9	Aurora	13	−3	15
10	Malacateco	13	−5	15
11	Cobán Imperial	13	−4	13
12	Suchitepéquez	13	−15	7