Cobán Imperial v Municipal prediction · Liga Nacional

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 00:30

Cobán Imperial 2–1 Municipal COBÁN IMPERIAL WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cobán Imperial win~~36%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.610

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.704

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cobán Imperial win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Cobán Imperial 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–30–34
1′KICK-OFF Cobán Imperial v Municipal
11′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Cobán Imperial
12′🟨 YELLOW · 9' A. Cabrera · Cobán Imperial
15′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Municipal
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Cobán Imperial win 32%)
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Municipal
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Municipal
45′HALF-TIME Cobán Imperial 1–0 Municipal
45′SECOND HALF Cobán Imperial 1–0 Municipal
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Municipal · On: J. Martinez · Off: J. Bantes
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Municipal · On: R. Munoz · Off: E. Elington
47′A goal for Cobán Imperial on 45′. 0–0 · 28–46–26
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Municipal · On: P. Altan · Off: C. Hernandez
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Cobán Imperial · On: Y. Alvarez · Off: L. Rosas
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Cobán Imperial · On: S. Paredes · Off: A. Ical
49′We said Cobán Imperial at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–20–6
49′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 74–20–6
49′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Cobán Imperial 1–0 Municipal
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Cobán Imperial win: 36% at kick-off, 74% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Cobán Imperial win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 20%)
51′We said Cobán Imperial at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Cobán Imperial win: 36% at kick-off, 76% now
64′We said Cobán Imperial at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
66′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Cobán Imperial · On: U. Amaral · Off: J. Winter
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Municipal · On: Y. Y. Perez · Off: N. Samayoa
73′We said Cobán Imperial at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–1
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Cobán Imperial win: 36% at kick-off, 86% now
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Municipal · On: E. Lopez · Off: R. Barrientos
80′We said Cobán Imperial at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
82′Cobán Imperial find the net on 82′. 1–0 · 92–8–0
82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Cobán Imperial · On: W. Amaya · Off: B. Aldana
83′We said Cobán Imperial at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
83′⚽ GOAL · 82' Cobán Imperial 2–0 Municipal
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Cobán Imperial win: 36% at kick-off, over 99% now
84′Cobán Imperial find the net on 84′. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Cobán Imperial · On: K. Valdez · Off: M. Moreira
90′2–1 at the end. Our 36% on Cobán Imperial comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Cobán Imperial
97′A goal for Municipal on 90′. 2–0 · 100–0–0 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
97′We said Cobán Imperial at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–1 · 99–1–0
97′⚽ GOAL · 90+7' Cobán Imperial 2–1 Municipal
98′3 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 99–1–0
FTFULL TIME Cobán Imperial 2–1 Municipal
FTCobán Imperial 2–1 Municipal · Cobán Imperial win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Cobán Imperial just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Cobán Imperial 36%, draw 29%, Municipal 34%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Cobán Imperial v MunicipalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Cobán Imperial win36%

Draw29%

Municipal win34%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 22:00

RoundMatchday 14

VenueEstadio Verapaz

Line-ups

Cobán Imperial

Municipal

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cobán Imperial

Municipal

3Days since last match4

Last match: 12 Oct · Liga Nacional (Guatemala)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Municipal	12	+11	25
11	Cobán Imperial	13	−4	13

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Cobán Imperial

Formation not confirmed

22 B. Aldana

17 A. Cabrera

55 T. Casas

14 L. De Leon

12 A. Ical

21 B. J. Leal Ramirez

11 M. Moreira

18 L. Rosas

16 E. Soto

7 S. Teni

77 J. Winter

Coach · Sebastian Bini

Substitutes

8 · Y. Alvarez

80 · W. Amaya

15 · U. Amaral

10 · B. Calabrese

20 · S. Paredes

23 · J. Romero

32 · J. Sandoval

19 · K. Valdez

9 · C. Winter

Municipal

Formation not confirmed

12 K. Navarro

31 C. Calderon

52 A. David

4 N. Samayoa

16 J. Morales

14 J. Franco

26 R. Barrientos

19 C. Hernandez

92 J. Mendez

11 J. Bantes

17 E. Elington

Coach · Mario Acevedo

Substitutes

1 · B. Linares

13 · C. Estrada

43 · Y. Y. Perez

8 · R. Saravia

7 · R. Munoz

32 · E. Lopez

10 · P. Altan

33 · A. Cabeza

9 · J. Martinez

Our number · cobán imperial winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

36% The market32%

Us36%

~~Market~~32%

We make Cobán Imperial a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cobán Imperial v Municipal~~1.10 – 1.05

~~Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 13 v 25~~11 v 3

~~The market · Cobán Imperial win~~32% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cobán Imperial win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cobán Imperial win	36%	32%	+4
Draw	29%	29%	0
Municipal win	34%	39%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	36%	47%	−11
Both teams to score	43%	52%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	63%	70%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	17%	27%	−10
Cobán Imperial or draw	66%	61%	+5
Cobán Imperial clean sheet	35%	–	–
Municipal clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 11.8 12.3 6.5 2.3 1 12.7 13.3 7.0 2.5 2 7.0 7.3 3.8 3 2.6 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cobán Imperial down, Municipal across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,407 Liga Nacional matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 78 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cobán Imperial at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Municipal away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for Cobán Imperial, 1.05 for Municipal. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MUN 2–0 COB · MUN 0–0 COB · COB 0–0 MUN · MUN 3–1 COB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 6 Sept

COBÁN IMPERIAL

DDDWWL0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 1–2

MUNICIPAL

DWDWDD0–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Antigua GFC	14	+5	26
2	Guastatoya	14	+4	26
3	Municipal	12	+11	25
4	Xelajú	14	+10	21
5	Deportivo San Pedro	13	+3	21
6	Marquense	14	−2	21
7	Mixco	13	−1	18
8	Aurora	14	−2	18
9	Comunicaciones	14	−3	15
10	Malacateco	14	−6	15
11	Cobán Imperial	13	−4	13
12	Suchitepéquez	13	−15	7