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Aurora v Xelajú

Aurora

2–1Full time

Xelajú

Liga Nacional · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Guillermo Slowing

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 00:30

Aurora 2–1 Xelajú AURORA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Aurora win~~38%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.574

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.625

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Aurora win at 38%.
0′Much as we predicted: Aurora was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–27–34
0′KICK-OFF Aurora v Xelajú
1′Much as we predicted: Aurora was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–27–34
15′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Aurora
23′🟨 YELLOW · 15' C. Monterroso · Aurora
23′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Xelajú
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Aurora
33′⚽ GOAL · 34' Aurora 0–0 Xelajú
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Aurora 0–1 Xelajú
44′⚽ GOAL · 45' Aurora 0–1 Xelajú
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Aurora · On: A. J. Echeverria Perez · Off: L. Aguilar
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Aurora · On: J. Rodriguez · Off: C. Monterroso
45′SECOND HALF Aurora 0–1 Xelajú
48′SECOND HALF Aurora 0–1 Xelajú
49′SECOND HALF Aurora 0–1 Xelajú
50′SECOND HALF Aurora 0–1 Xelajú
50′⚽ GOAL · 51' Aurora 0–1 Xelajú
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Aurora 1–1 Xelajú · S. Cardenas
53′🟥 RED CARD · 54' Xelajú
54′🟥 RED CARD · 54' Xelajú
59′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Xelajú
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Xelajú · On: E. Gonzalez · Off: J. Joj
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Aurora 2–1 Xelajú · H. Morales
73′⚽ GOAL · 74' Aurora 2–1 Xelajú
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Aurora 2–1 Xelajú · H. Morales
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Aurora · On: D. Ruiz · Off: H. Morales
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Aurora 2–1 Xelajú
92′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Aurora · On: J. Ticuru · Off: V. Urias
92′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Xelajú · On: Y. Diaz · Off: Y. Jaen
93′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Xelajú · On: O. de Leon · Off: E. Cardoza
93′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Aurora · On: J. Lemus · Off: K. Garcia
FTFULL TIME Aurora 2–1 Xelajú
FTAurora 2–1 Xelajú · Aurora win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Aurora win38%

Draw27%

Xelajú win35%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 22:00

Venue · Estadio Guillermo Slowing

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Aurora

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Navas

4 C. Monterroso

27 C. Flores

3 M. Acosta

15 K. Garcia

18 J. Grajeda

10 J. Vivas

31 V. Urias

13 H. Morales

57 L. Aguilar

17 D. Bajan

Coach · Saul Phillip

Substitutes

2 · L. Cardona

29 · H. Del Cid

14 · A. J. Echeverria Perez

67 · R. Hernandez

5 · J. Lemus

7 · J. Rodriguez

9 · D. Ruiz

22 · L. Sanchez

28 · J. Ticuru

Xelajú

Formation not confirmed

23 R. Calderon

11 S. Cardenas

16 J. Cardona

26 E. Cardoza

18 J. Castaneda

14 J. Gonzalez

70 Y. Jaen

19 J. Joj

10 A. Lopez

1 D. Silva

13 W. Tebalan

Coach · Roberto Hernandez

Substitutes

30 · O. de Leon

7 · Y. Diaz

12 · E. Gonzalez

4 · M. Hernandez

24 · R. Marquez

20 · H. E. Quezada Gamez

– · J. Racancoj

98 · E. Sican

8 · J. Ubico

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Aurora

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Navas

4 C. Monterroso

27 C. Flores

3 M. Acosta

15 K. Garcia

18 J. Grajeda

10 J. Vivas

31 V. Urias

13 H. Morales

57 L. Aguilar

17 D. Bajan

Coach · Saul Phillip

Substitutes

2 · L. Cardona

29 · H. Del Cid

14 · A. J. Echeverria Perez

67 · R. Hernandez

5 · J. Lemus

7 · J. Rodriguez

9 · D. Ruiz

22 · L. Sanchez

28 · J. Ticuru

Xelajú

Formation not confirmed

23 R. Calderon

11 S. Cardenas

16 J. Cardona

26 E. Cardoza

18 J. Castaneda

14 J. Gonzalez

70 Y. Jaen

19 J. Joj

10 A. Lopez

1 D. Silva

13 W. Tebalan

Coach · Roberto Hernandez

Substitutes

30 · O. de Leon

7 · Y. Diaz

12 · E. Gonzalez

4 · M. Hernandez

24 · R. Marquez

20 · H. E. Quezada Gamez

– · J. Racancoj

98 · E. Sican

8 · J. Ubico

Our number · aurora winPublished 10 Oct 22:04

38% The market36%

Us38%

~~Market~~36%

We make Aurora a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · aurora win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 39% to 36% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aurora win	38%	36%	+3
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Xelajú win	35%	36%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	44%	48%	−4
Both teams to score	49%	54%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	70%	72%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	23%	28%	−4
Aurora or draw	65%	64%	+2
Aurora clean sheet	31%	–	–
Xelajú clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.7 10.3 6.1 2.4 1 10.9 12.7 7.5 3.0 2 6.9 8.0 4.8 3 2.9 3.4 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aurora down, Xelajú across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,400 Liga Nacional matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.1% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 3.40 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aurora at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Xelajú away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Aurora, 1.19 for Xelajú. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~XEL 3–1 AUR · AUR 0–0 XEL · XEL 4–0 AUR · AUR 3–2 XEL

Form · last six in Liga Nacional

AURORA

LLLWLL1–2 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 1–2

XELAJÚ

DLDWLW0–0 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 2–3 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guastatoya	12	+6	25
2	Municipal	11	+11	24
3	Antigua GFC	12	+4	22
4	Marquense	12	−2	19
5	Xelajú	12	+10	18
6	Deportivo San Pedro	12	+2	18
7	Mixco	11	−1	16
8	Comunicaciones	12	−1	15
9	Cobán Imperial	12	−3	13
10	Aurora	12	−4	12
11	Malacateco	12	−7	12
12	Suchitepéquez	12	−15	6