Aurora v Deportivo San Pedro

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Aurora win at 50%.
2. 1′KICK-OFF Aurora v Deportivo San Pedro
3. 2′Much as we predicted: Aurora was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–27–24
4. 20′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Aurora
5. 27′Deportivo San Pedro find the net on 27′. 0–1. 0–1 · 18–26–56
6. 27′We said Aurora at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–26–56
7. 27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Aurora 0–1 Deportivo San Pedro
8. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Aurora win: 50% at kick-off, 18% now
9. 27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Deportivo San Pedro win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Aurora win 18%)
10. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 17–26–57
11. 31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Aurora
12. 38′We said Aurora at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
13. 45′HALF-TIME Aurora 0–1 Deportivo San Pedro
14. 46′SECOND HALF Aurora 0–1 Deportivo San Pedro
15. 47′A goal for Aurora on 47′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 37–43–20
16. 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Aurora 1–1 Deportivo San Pedro
17. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Aurora win: 50% at kick-off, 37% now
18. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Deportivo San Pedro win 20%)
19. 48′We said Aurora at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 1–1 · 37–43–20
20. 50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Aurora · On: J. Rodriguez · Off: A. J. Echeverria Perez
21. 50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Aurora · On: R. Hernandez · Off: Moran
22. 51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Aurora · On: V. Urias · Off: L. Aguilar
23. 53′We said Aurora at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–47–19
24. 55′Aurora score on 55′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 81–16–3
25. 55′We published Aurora at 50%. Our model now makes it 81%. 2–1 · 81–16–3
26. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Aurora 2–1 Deportivo San Pedro
27. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Aurora win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
28. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Aurora win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 16%)
29. 56′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 82–15–3
30. 66′We published Aurora at 50%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
31. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Deportivo San Pedro · On: S. Colon · Off: J. Fajardo
32. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Deportivo San Pedro · On: L. Martinez · Off: E. Macal
33. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Deportivo San Pedro · On: E. Garcia · Off: L. Calderon
34. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Deportivo San Pedro · On: B. Aldana · Off: G. Aguila
35. 77′We published Aurora at 50%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
36. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Aurora win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
37. 84′We published Aurora at 50%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
38. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Deportivo San Pedro
39. 85′A red card for Deportivo San Pedro on 85′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–1 · 95–5–0
40. 85′🟥 RED CARD · 85' Deportivo San Pedro
41. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Aurora · On: E. Ibarguen · Off: H. Morales
42. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Deportivo San Pedro · On: B. de Leon · Off: M. Gaitan
43. 95′Aurora find the net on 90′. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
44. 95′We published Aurora at 50%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
45. 95′4 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
46. 95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Aurora 3–1 Deportivo San Pedro
47. 95′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+5' Aurora win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
48. FTFULL TIME Aurora 3–1 Deportivo San Pedro
49. FTAurora 3–1 Deportivo San Pedro · Aurora win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.