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Antigua GFC v Xelajú
Antigua GFCXelajúLiga Nacional · TUE 20 OCT · Estadio Pensativo
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Antigua GFC win at 56%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Antigua GFC 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–23–21
- 1′KICK-OFF Antigua GFC v Xelajú
- 14′Antigua GFC score on 14′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 79–14–7
- 14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Antigua GFC 1–0 Xelajú
- 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Antigua GFC win: 56% at kick-off, 79% now
- 15′We said Antigua GFC at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–14–7
- 29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Antigua GFC
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 79–15–6
- 32′We said Antigua GFC at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–6
- 35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Xelajú
- 43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Xelajú
- 45′HALF-TIME Antigua GFC 1–0 Xelajú
- 45′SECOND HALF Antigua GFC 1–0 Xelajú
- 57′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Antigua GFC · On: W. Fajardo · Off: E. Camargo
- 62′Antigua GFC find the net on 61′. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
- 62′⚽ GOAL · 61' Antigua GFC 2–0 Xelajú
- 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Antigua GFC win: 56% at kick-off, 98% now
- 63′We said Antigua GFC at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
- 64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Xelajú
- 67′A goal for Antigua GFC on 67′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Antigua GFC 3–0 Xelajú
- 68′We said Antigua GFC at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 68′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Antigua GFC · On: A. Garcia · Off: O. Castellanos
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Xelajú · On: Y. Jaen · Off: R. Calderon
- 72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Antigua GFC
- 86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Antigua GFC
- 88′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Xelajú · On: J. Joj · Off: A. Lopez
- 90′3–0 at the end. Our 56% on Antigua GFC comes in. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Antigua GFC 3–0 Xelajú
- FTAntigua GFC 3–0 Xelajú · Antigua GFC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Antigua GFC are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Antigua GFC 56%, draw 23%, Xelajú 21%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 53%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off
Antigua GFC win56%Xelajú win21%Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 02:00
RoundMatchday 15
VenueEstadio Pensativo
Match timeline
All events
Antigua GFCMINXelajúEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Antigua GFC
Xelajú
Last match: 15 Oct · Liga Nacional (Guatemala)
Last match: 15 Oct · Liga Nacional (Guatemala)
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Antigua GFC | 14 | +5 | 26 |
| 6 | Xelajú | 14 | +10 | 21 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.
Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Antigua GFC a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Antigua GFC win | 56% | 53% | +3 |
| Draw | 23% | 26% | −3 |
| Xelajú win | 21% | 21% | 0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 51% | +3 |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 73% | +5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 31% | +1 |
| Antigua GFC or draw | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Antigua GFC clean sheet | 36% | – | – |
| Xelajú clean sheet | 16% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 20 Sept
ANTIGUA GFC
XELAJÚ
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Guastatoya | 15 | +4 | 27 |
| 2 |  Municipal | 14 | +10 | 26 |
| 3 | Antigua GFC | 14 | +5 | 26 |
| 4 |  Marquense | 15 | −1 | 24 |
| 5 |  Deportivo San Pedro | 15 | +1 | 22 |
| 6 | Xelajú | 14 | +10 | 21 |
| 7 |  Mixco | 14 | +1 | 21 |
| 8 |  Aurora | 15 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 |  Cobán Imperial | 15 | −5 | 16 |
| 10 |  Comunicaciones | 14 | −3 | 15 |
| 11 |  Malacateco | 14 | −6 | 15 |
| 12 |  Suchitepéquez | 15 | −16 | 8 |
Based on available league results before kick-off; standings may be incomplete.