Antigua GFC v Cobán Imperial prediction · Liga Nacional

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 05:00

Antigua GFC 2–1 Cobán Imperial ANTIGUA GFC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Antigua GFC win~~65%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.187

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.290

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Antigua GFC win at 65%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Antigua GFC 65% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 65–20–15
1′KICK-OFF Antigua GFC v Cobán Imperial
3′Little has changed for our model: Antigua GFC 65% before kick-off, 64% now. 0–0 · 64–21–15
15′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Cobán Imperial
39′⚽ GOAL · 38' Antigua GFC 1–0 Cobán Imperial · K. J. Lopez
45′HALF-TIME Antigua GFC 1–0 Cobán Imperial
46′SECOND HALF Antigua GFC 1–0 Cobán Imperial
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Cobán Imperial · On: Y. Alvarez · Off: A. Ical
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Antigua GFC · On: J. Espinoza · Off: S. Garzaro
59′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Antigua GFC · On: A. Maziero · Off: D. Fernandez
60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Cobán Imperial · On: U. Amaral · Off: C. Winter
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Antigua GFC · On: J. Rosales · Off: K. J. Lopez
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Antigua GFC
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Antigua GFC 1–1 Cobán Imperial
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Antigua GFC · On: J. Colindres · Off: A. Garcia
81′🟥 RED CARD · 81' Cobán Imperial
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Antigua GFC 2–1 Cobán Imperial
90′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Antigua GFC
90′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Cobán Imperial
FTFULL TIME Antigua GFC 2–1 Cobán Imperial
FTAntigua GFC 2–1 Cobán Imperial · Antigua GFC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Antigua GFC win65%

Draw20%

Cobán Imperial win15%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 02:10

VenueEstadio Pensativo

Line-ups

Antigua GFC

Cobán Imperial

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Antigua GFC

Cobán Imperial

3Days since last match9

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Antigua GFC	12	+4	22
11	Cobán Imperial	12	−3	13

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Antigua GFC

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Moran

17 O. Castellanos

81 W. Fajardo

24 D. Fernandez

7 J. Galvez

5 A. Garcia

8 S. Garzaro

34 K. J. Lopez

4 J. Carbonell

21 A. Robinson

– S. Zuniga

Coach · Mauricio Tapia

Substitutes

77 · E. Camargo

20 · J. Colindres

19 · J. Espinoza

2 · A. Gonzalez

15 · A. Maziero

72 · J. E. Moreno Alfaro

27 · D. Palencia

6 · J. Rosales

54 · S. Sagastume

Cobán Imperial

Formation not confirmed

55 T. Casas

17 A. Cabrera

14 L. De Leon

12 A. Ical

11 M. Moreira

21 B. J. Leal Ramirez

28 Janderson

16 E. Soto

– S. Teni

2 D. Torres

9 C. Winter

Coach · Sebastian Bini

Substitutes

22 · B. Aldana

8 · Y. Alvarez

– · U. Amaral

80 · W. Amaya

10 · B. Calabrese

20 · S. Paredes

23 · J. Romero

18 · L. Rosas

32 · J. Sandoval

Our number · antigua gfc winPublished 12 Oct 02:00

65% The market56%

Us65%

~~Market~~56%

We make Antigua GFC a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · antigua gfc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Antigua GFC win	65%	56%	+9
Draw	20%	24%	−4
Cobán Imperial win	15%	20%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	56%	55%	+1
Both teams to score	50%	55%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	78%	76%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	33%	34%	−1
Antigua GFC or draw	85%	80%	+5
Antigua GFC clean sheet	42%	–	–
Cobán Imperial clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.4%

0123450 5.6 4.8 2.0 1 11.2 9.5 4.1 2 11.4 9.7 4.2 3 7.8 6.6 2.9 4 4.0 3.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Antigua GFC down, Cobán Imperial across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,402 Liga Nacional matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.1% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

23 previous meetings, 2.57 goals a meeting; 11 of 23 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Antigua GFC at home: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Cobán Imperial away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.06 goals for Antigua GFC, 0.86 for Cobán Imperial. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

23 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.57

~~Over 2.5~~11 of 23

~~Both scored~~12 of 23

~~Last meetings~~COB 0–2 ANT · ANT 2–2 COB · COB 5–1 ANT · ANT 0–0 COB

Form · last six in Liga Nacional

ANTIGUA GFC

WWLLLD2–0 · 3–2 · 0–4 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 1–1

COBÁN IMPERIAL

LDDDWW0–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guastatoya	13	+4	25
2	Municipal	11	+11	24
3	Antigua GFC	12	+4	22
4	Marquense	12	−2	19
5	Xelajú	13	+9	18
6	Deportivo San Pedro	12	+2	18
7	Mixco	11	−1	16
8	Comunicaciones	12	−1	15
9	Aurora	13	−3	15
10	Malacateco	13	−5	15
11	Cobán Imperial	12	−3	13
12	Suchitepéquez	12	−15	6