Pyrgos 1968 v Anagennisi Karditsas prediction · Super League 2

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Pyrgos 1968 0–1 Anagennisi Karditsas PYRGOS 1968 WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pyrgos 1968 win~~35%

~~The market said~~24%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.680

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.448

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pyrgos 1968 win at 35%.
1′Much as we predicted: Pyrgos 1968 was 35% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 35–33–33
1′KICK-OFF Pyrgos 1968 v Anagennisi Karditsas
16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Pyrgos 1968 win 32%)
36′🟥 RED CARD · 36' -1 · Anagennisi Karditsas
37′A red card for Anagennisi Karditsas on 37′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 28–46–26
42′🟨 YELLOW · 37' K. Anagennisi · Anagennisi Karditsas
44′🟥 RED CARD · 44' Pyrgos 1968
45′Red cards for both sides: Pyrgos 1968 down to nine, Anagennisi Karditsas to nine. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 26–50–24
45′Red cards for both sides: Pyrgos 1968 down to ten, Anagennisi Karditsas to ten. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 26–50–24
45′HALF-TIME Pyrgos 1968 0–0 Anagennisi Karditsas
45′SECOND HALF Pyrgos 1968 0–0 Anagennisi Karditsas
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Pyrgos 1968
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Pyrgos 1968 win: 35% at kick-off, 25% now
52′We said Pyrgos 1968 at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–54–22
62′We said Pyrgos 1968 at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–62–18
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Pyrgos 1968 win: 35% at kick-off, 15% now
72′We said Pyrgos 1968 at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–73–13
79′We said Pyrgos 1968 at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–82–9
79′We said Pyrgos 1968 at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–1 · 1–9–91
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Pyrgos 1968 0–1 Anagennisi Karditsas
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Pyrgos 1968 win: 35% at kick-off, 1% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Anagennisi Karditsas win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 9%)
80′Anagennisi Karditsas score on 80′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 0–8–91
90′Full time, 0–1. We called Pyrgos 1968 at 35% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–1 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Pyrgos 1968 0–1 Anagennisi Karditsas
FTPyrgos 1968 0–1 Anagennisi Karditsas · Pyrgos 1968 win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Pyrgos 1968 just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Pyrgos 1968 35%, draw 33%, Anagennisi Karditsas 33%. Over 2.5 goals 26%, both teams to score 33%.

The AI’s read on Pyrgos 1968 v Anagennisi KarditsasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Pyrgos 1968 win35%

Draw33%

Anagennisi Karditsas win33%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pyrgos 1968

Anagennisi Karditsas

7Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Super League 2

Last match: 12 Oct · Super League 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Anagennisi Karditsas	6	−3	5
12	Pyrgos 1968	6	−4	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pyrgos 1968 winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:38 · locked at kick-off

35% The market24%

Us35%

~~Market~~24%

We make Pyrgos 1968 a 35% chance to win. The market has them at 24%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pyrgos 1968 v Anagennisi Karditsas~~0.90 – 0.86

~~Form · Super League 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 5 v 5~~12 v 11

~~The market · Pyrgos 1968 win~~24% · ours 35%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Pyrgos 1968 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 36%, 35% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 24% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pyrgos 1968 win	35%	24%	+11
Draw	33%	31%	+2
Anagennisi Karditsas win	33%	45%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	26%	37%	−11
Both teams to score	33%	43%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	52%	62%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	11%	19%	−8
Pyrgos 1968 or draw	67%	55%	+12
Pyrgos 1968 clean sheet	43%	–	–
Anagennisi Karditsas clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.5%

0123450 17.5 15.2 6.4 1 15.7 12.3 5.4 2 6.9 5.7 2.5 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pyrgos 1968 down, Anagennisi Karditsas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,881 Super League 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 34.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Pyrgos 1968 at home: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 2). Anagennisi Karditsas away: 0.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.90 goals for Pyrgos 1968, 0.86 for Anagennisi Karditsas. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Super League 2 this season · since 5 Sept

PYRGOS 1968

DLLDWL0–0 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–1

ANAGENNISI KARDITSAS

DLDLLW1–1 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Marko	7	+7	19
2	Kallithea	6	+5	15
3	Panionios	6	+5	13
4	Larisa	6	+5	11
5	Ellas Syros	7	+5	10
6	Panserraikos	6	+3	10
7	Panthrakikos	6	+1	8
8	Apollon Pontou	6	0	8
9	Asteras Tripolis II	7	−2	8
10	Niki Volos	6	0	7
11	Anagennisi Karditsas	6	−3	5
12	Pyrgos 1968	6	−4	5
13	Olympiakos Piraeus II	6	−5	5
14	PAOK II	6	−5	5
15	Nestos Chrisoupolis	6	−4	4
16	Zakynthos	7	−8	3