PAOK II v Apollon Pontou prediction · Super League 2

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 15:31

PAOK II 2–1 Apollon Pontou PAOK II WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said PAOK II win~~54%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.314

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.402

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said PAOK II win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: PAOK II 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–25–21
1′KICK-OFF PAOK II v Apollon Pontou
12′A goal for PAOK II on 12′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 80–14–6
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' PAOK II 1–0 Apollon Pontou
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' PAOK II win: 54% at kick-off, 80% now
13′We said PAOK II at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–14–6
20′PAOK II score on 20′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' PAOK II 2–0 Apollon Pontou
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' PAOK II win: 54% at kick-off, 95% now
21′We said PAOK II at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′HALF-TIME PAOK II 2–0 Apollon Pontou
46′SECOND HALF PAOK II 2–0 Apollon Pontou
62′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 2–0 · 98–2–0
78′We said PAOK II at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′Apollon Pontou find the net on 90′. 2–1. 2–1 · 97–2–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' PAOK II 2–1 Apollon Pontou
91′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 98–2–0
FTFULL TIME PAOK II 2–1 Apollon Pontou
FTPAOK II 2–1 Apollon Pontou · PAOK II win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

PAOK II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: PAOK II 54%, draw 25%, Apollon Pontou 21%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on PAOK II v Apollon PontouBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

PAOK II win54%

Draw25%

Apollon Pontou win21%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

PAOK II

Apollon Pontou

7Days since last match8

Last match: 12 Oct · Super League 2

Last match: 11 Oct · Super League 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Apollon Pontou	6	0	8
14	PAOK II	6	−5	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · paok ii winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 19 Oct 03:59 · locked at kick-off

54% The market48%

Us54%

~~Market~~48%

We make PAOK II a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · PAOK II v Apollon Pontou~~1.54 – 0.81

~~Form · Super League 2 this season · since 7 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 8~~14 v 8

~~The market · PAOK II win~~48% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · PAOK II win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
PAOK II win	54%	48%	+6
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Apollon Pontou win	21%	23%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	41%	42%	−1
Both teams to score	42%	47%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	67%	66%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	22%	23%	−1
PAOK II or draw	79%	77%	+2
PAOK II clean sheet	46%	–	–
Apollon Pontou clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.1%

0123450 10.0 8.2 3.3 1 15.1 11.0 4.7 2 11.0 8.4 3.5 3 5.8 4.4 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+PAOK II down, Apollon Pontou across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,885 Super League 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.3% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

PAOK II at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Apollon Pontou away: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for PAOK II, 0.81 for Apollon Pontou. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~APO 0–1 PAO · PAO 4–0 APO · PAO 1–1 APO · APO 1–2 PAO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Super League 2 this season · since 7 Sept

PAOK II

DLWLDL1–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–3

APOLLON PONTOU

DLLWDW2–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Marko	7	+7	19
2	Kallithea	7	+5	16
3	Panionios	6	+5	13
4	Larisa	7	+5	12
5	Panserraikos	7	+3	11
6	Ellas Syros	7	+5	10
7	Panthrakikos	7	+1	9
8	Apollon Pontou	6	0	8
9	Anagennisi Karditsas	7	−2	8
10	Asteras Tripolis II	7	−2	8
11	Niki Volos	6	0	7
12	Olympiakos Piraeus II	7	−5	6
13	Nestos Chrisoupolis	7	−4	5
14	PAOK II	6	−5	5
15	Pyrgos 1968	7	−5	5
16	Zakynthos	7	−8	3