Panthrakikos v Asteras Tripolis II prediction · Super League 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PanthrakikosDrawAsteras Tripolis II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Panthrakikos 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Panthrakikos are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Panthrakikos 45%, draw 29%, Asteras Tripolis II 26%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Panthrakikos v Asteras Tripolis IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Panthrakikos win45%

Draw29%

Asteras Tripolis II win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Panthrakikos

Asteras Tripolis II

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Super League 2

Last match: 17 Oct · Super League 2

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Panthrakikos	7	+1	9
10	Asteras Tripolis II	7	−2	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · panthrakikos winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

45% The market46%

Us45%

~~Market~~46%

We make Panthrakikos a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Panthrakikos v Asteras Tripolis II~~1.24 – 0.87

~~Form · last six in Super League 2 this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 8~~8 v 10

~~The market · Panthrakikos win~~46% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Panthrakikos win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Panthrakikos win	45%	46%	−1
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Asteras Tripolis II win	26%	26%	0
Over 2.5 goals	35%	45%	−10
Both teams to score	40%	50%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	61%	69%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	17%	25%	−8
Panthrakikos or draw	74%	74%	0
Panthrakikos clean sheet	43%	–	–
Asteras Tripolis II clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.3%

0123450 12.5 11.0 4.6 1 15.3 12.2 5.4 2 9.2 7.7 3.3 3 3.9 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Panthrakikos down, Asteras Tripolis II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,887 Super League 2 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.9% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Panthrakikos at home: 1.20 scored, 0.60 conceded a game (last 5). Asteras Tripolis II away: 0.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Panthrakikos, 0.87 for Asteras Tripolis II. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League 2 this season · since 13 Sept

PANTHRAKIKOS

WWLDLD2–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–2

ASTERAS TRIPOLIS II

LWLWDD0–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Marko	7	+7	19
2	Kallithea	8	+5	17
3	Panionios	7	+5	14
4	Panserraikos	8	+4	14
5	Larisa	8	+5	13
6	Niki Volos	8	+2	11
7	Ellas Syros	8	+4	10
8	Panthrakikos	7	+1	9
9	Anagennisi Karditsas	7	−2	8
10	Asteras Tripolis II	7	−2	8
11	Nestos Chrisoupolis	8	−3	8
12	Apollon Pontou	8	−3	8
13	PAOK II	7	−4	8
14	Olympiakos Piraeus II	8	−6	6
15	Pyrgos 1968	7	−5	5
16	Zakynthos	7	−8	3