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Panserraikos v Nestos Chrisoupolis

Panserraikos

2–1Full time

Nestos Chrisoupolis

Super League 2 · SAT 10 OCT · Dimotiko Stadio Serron

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Panserraikos 2–1 Nestos Chrisoupolis PANSERRAIKOS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Panserraikos win~~54%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.320

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.203

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Panserraikos win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: Panserraikos was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–27–19
1′KICK-OFF Panserraikos v Nestos Chrisoupolis
42′We said Panserraikos at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 42%. 0–0 · 42–41–17
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Panserraikos win: 54% at kick-off, 42% now
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Panserraikos 0–1 Nestos Chrisoupolis
45′Nestos Chrisoupolis ahead on 43′ through G. Tocka. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–28–59
45′HALF-TIME Panserraikos 0–1 Nestos Chrisoupolis
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Panserraikos win: 54% at kick-off, 13% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Nestos Chrisoupolis win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Panserraikos win 13%)
46′SECOND HALF Panserraikos 0–1 Nestos Chrisoupolis
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Panserraikos 1–1 Nestos Chrisoupolis
56′⚽ GOAL · 52' Panserraikos 2–1 Nestos Chrisoupolis
62′52′ and it is 2–1: Panserraikos have scored. 2–1 · 86–12–1
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Panserraikos win: 54% at kick-off, 86% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Panserraikos win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Nestos Chrisoupolis win 1%)
80′We published Panserraikos at 54%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–1 · 93–6–0
FTFULL TIME Panserraikos 2–1 Nestos Chrisoupolis
FTPanserraikos 2–1 Nestos Chrisoupolis · Panserraikos win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Panserraikos win54%

Draw26%

Nestos Chrisoupolis win20%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:45

Venue · Dimotiko Stadio Serron

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · panserraikos winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

54% The market64%

Us54%

~~Market~~64%

We make Panserraikos a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · panserraikos win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Panserraikos win	54%	64%	−10
Draw	26%	23%	+3
Nestos Chrisoupolis win	20%	13%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	37%	49%	−12
Both teams to score	38%	45%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	63%	72%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	19%	29%	−11
Panserraikos or draw	80%	87%	−7
Panserraikos clean sheet	49%	–	–
Nestos Chrisoupolis clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.5%

0123450 12.0 8.8 3.2 1 16.5 11.0 4.2 2 11.4 7.8 2.9 3 5.7 3.9 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Panserraikos down, Nestos Chrisoupolis across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,870 Super League 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 35.9% of games this season, across 39 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Panserraikos at home: 2.17 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Nestos Chrisoupolis away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Panserraikos, 0.73 for Nestos Chrisoupolis. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Super League 2

PANSERRAIKOS

LLWLWD0–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 1–1

NESTOS CHRISOUPOLIS

DDWLLL2–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Marko	5	+6	15
2	Larisa	5	+6	11
3	Panionios	5	+2	10
4	Ellas Syros	5	+6	9
5	Kallithea	4	+3	9
6	Panthrakikos	5	+2	8
7	Panserraikos	5	+2	7
8	Asteras Tripolis II	5	−2	6
9	Apollon Pontou	5	−1	5
10	PAOK II	5	−2	5
11	Pyrgos 1968	5	−3	5
12	Niki Volos	5	−1	4
13	Nestos Chrisoupolis	5	−3	4
14	Olympiakos Piraeus II	4	−4	4
15	Zakynthos	5	−5	2
16	Anagennisi Karditsas	5	−6	2