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Panserraikos v Ellas Syros

Panserraikos
3–2Full time
Ellas Syros

Super League 2 · SAT 24 OCT · Dimotiko Stadio Serron

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38
Panserraikos 3–2 Ellas Syros PANSERRAIKOS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Panserraikos win44%
The market said58%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.470
The market’s Brier score0.268

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 22 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Panserraikos win at 44%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Panserraikos was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–29–27
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Panserraikos v Ellas Syros
  4. 28′We said Panserraikos at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–25–62
  5. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Panserraikos 0–1 Ellas Syros
  6. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Panserraikos win: 44% at kick-off, 13% now
  7. 28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Ellas Syros win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Panserraikos win 38%)
  8. 29′Ellas Syros score on 29′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 13–25–62
  9. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 13–25–62
  10. 43′We said Panserraikos at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–66
  11. 44′A goal for Panserraikos on 44′. 0–1 · 9–24–67
  12. 44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Panserraikos 1–1 Ellas Syros
  13. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Panserraikos win: 44% at kick-off, 33% now
  14. 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Ellas Syros win 66%)
  15. 44′GOAL DISALLOWED · 44' Panserraikos
  16. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Panserraikos win: 44% at kick-off, 9% now
  17. 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Ellas Syros win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 45%)
  18. 45′⚽ GOAL · 44' Panserraikos 1–1 Ellas Syros
  19. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Panserraikos win: 44% at kick-off, 33% now
  20. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Ellas Syros win 67%)
  21. 45′SECOND HALF Panserraikos 1–1 Ellas Syros
  22. 46′We said Panserraikos at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 32–46–21
  23. 47′HALF-TIME Panserraikos 1–1 Ellas Syros
  24. 52′We published Panserraikos at 44%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–16–3
  25. 52′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 80–16–3
  26. 52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Panserraikos 2–1 Ellas Syros
  27. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Panserraikos win: 44% at kick-off, 80% now
  28. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Panserraikos win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 50%)
  29. 53′A goal for Panserraikos on 52′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 80–16–3
  30. 57′We published Panserraikos at 44%. Our model now makes it 97%. 3–1 · 97–2–0
  31. 57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Panserraikos 3–1 Ellas Syros
  32. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Panserraikos win: 44% at kick-off, 97% now
  33. 58′4 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 97–2–0
  34. 58′Panserraikos score on 58′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 97–2–0
  35. 79′We published Panserraikos at 44%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  36. 85′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 95–5–0
  37. 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Panserraikos 3–2 Ellas Syros
  38. 87′Ellas Syros find the net on 86′. 3–2. 3–2 · 96–4–0
  39. 93′Full time, 3–2. We called Panserraikos at 44% — that one lands. 3–2 · 100–0–0
  40. FTFULL TIME Panserraikos 3–2 Ellas Syros
  41. FTPanserraikos 3–2 Ellas Syros · Panserraikos win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Panserraikos are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Panserraikos 44%, draw 29%, Ellas Syros 27%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Panserraikos v Ellas SyrosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Panserraikos win44%
Draw29%
Ellas Syros win27%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueDimotiko Stadio Serron

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Panserraikos

Ellas Syros

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Super League 2

Last match: 17 Oct · Super League 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Panserraikos7+311
6Ellas Syros7+510

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · panserraikos winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off
44% The market58%
Us44%
Market58%

We make Panserraikos a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Panserraikos v Ellas Syros1.20 – 0.85
Form · last six in Super League 2 this season · since 13 SeptW3 D2 L1 · W2 D3 L1
Table places · points 11 v 105 v 6
The market · Panserraikos win58% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55%60% 19 OCT 01:3724 OCT 12:18
Our probability · Panserraikos win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Panserraikos win44%58%−14
Draw29%25%+4
Ellas Syros win27%16%+11
Over 2.5 goals34%43%−9
Both teams to score38%43%−5
Over 1.5 goals60%67%−7
Over 3.5 goals16%24%−8
Panserraikos or draw73%84%−11
Panserraikos clean sheet44%––
Ellas Syros clean sheet31%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.6%
0123450 13.4 11.4 4.8 1 15.6 12.1 5.4 2 9.1 7.3 3.1 3 3.8 3.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Panserraikos down, Ellas Syros across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League 2 this season · since 13 Sept

PANSERRAIKOS

WLWDWD1–0 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–0

ELLAS SYROS

WWDDLD3–0 · 4–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Marko7+719
2Kallithea7+516
3Panionios7+514
4Larisa7+512
5Panserraikos7+311
6Ellas Syros7+510
7Panthrakikos7+19
8Niki Volos708
9Apollon Pontou7−18
10Anagennisi Karditsas7−28
11Asteras Tripolis II7−28
12PAOK II7−48
13Olympiakos Piraeus II7−56
14Nestos Chrisoupolis7−45
15Pyrgos 19687−55
16Zakynthos7−83

The competition's standings before kick-off.