Panionios v Marko prediction · Super League 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PanioniosDrawMarko

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Panionios 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Panionios are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Panionios 46%, draw 31%, Marko 23%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 33%.

The AI’s read on Panionios v MarkoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Panionios win46%

Draw31%

Marko win23%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:45

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Panionios

Marko

6Days since last match8

Last match: 19 Oct · Super League 2

Last match: 17 Oct · Super League 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · panionios winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

46% The market49%

Us46%

~~Market~~49%

We make Panionios a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Panionios v Marko~~1.13 – 0.71

~~Form · last six in Super League 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 14 v 19~~3 v 1

~~The market · Panionios win~~49% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Panionios win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Panionios win	46%	49%	−3
Draw	31%	29%	+2
Marko win	23%	22%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	28%	39%	−11
Both teams to score	33%	44%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	54%	64%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	12%	20%	−8
Panionios or draw	77%	78%	−1
Panionios clean sheet	50%	–	–
Marko clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.1%

0123450 16.4 11.5 4.0 1 18.1 11.9 4.4 2 10.0 6.9 2.5 3 3.9 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Panionios down, Marko across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,891 Super League 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 35.0% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 1.40 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Panionios at home: 1.67 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Marko away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Panionios, 0.71 for Marko. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~1.40

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~MAR 2–1 PAN · PAN 0–0 MAR · PAN 1–0 MAR · MAR 1–1 PAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League 2 this season · since 12 Sept

PANIONIOS

WDWLWD1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 1–1

MARKO

WWWWWD2–1 · 4–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Marko	7	+7	19
2	Kallithea	8	+5	17
3	Panionios	7	+5	14
4	Panserraikos	8	+4	14
5	Larisa	8	+5	13
6	Niki Volos	8	+2	11
7	Ellas Syros	8	+4	10
8	Panthrakikos	7	+1	9
9	Anagennisi Karditsas	7	−2	8
10	Asteras Tripolis II	7	−2	8
11	Nestos Chrisoupolis	8	−3	8
12	Apollon Pontou	8	−3	8
13	PAOK II	7	−4	8
14	Olympiakos Piraeus II	8	−6	6
15	Pyrgos 1968	7	−5	5
16	Zakynthos	7	−8	3