Olympiakos Piraeus II v Nestos Chrisoupolis prediction · Super League 2

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Olympiakos Piraeus II 1–2 Nestos Chrisoupolis OLYMPIAKOS PIRAEUS II WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Olympiakos Piraeus II win~~46%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.788

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.689

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Olympiakos Piraeus II win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Olympiakos Piraeus II was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–26–28
1′KICK-OFF Olympiakos Piraeus II v Nestos Chrisoupolis
10′Olympiakos Piraeus II find the net on 10′. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–18–10
10′We published Olympiakos Piraeus II at 46%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–18–10
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Olympiakos Piraeus II 1–0 Nestos Chrisoupolis
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Olympiakos Piraeus II win: 46% at kick-off, 72% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 74–18–8
36′We published Olympiakos Piraeus II at 46%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Olympiakos Piraeus II win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
45′HALF-TIME Olympiakos Piraeus II 1–0 Nestos Chrisoupolis
46′SECOND HALF Olympiakos Piraeus II 1–0 Nestos Chrisoupolis
59′We published Olympiakos Piraeus II at 46%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
71′We published Olympiakos Piraeus II at 46%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Olympiakos Piraeus II win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
79′We published Olympiakos Piraeus II at 46%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
82′A goal for Nestos Chrisoupolis on 82′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 11–81–8
82′We said Olympiakos Piraeus II at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 1–1 · 11–81–8
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Olympiakos Piraeus II 1–1 Nestos Chrisoupolis
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Olympiakos Piraeus II win: 46% at kick-off, 11% now
82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Draw is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Olympiakos Piraeus II win 91%)
84′We said Olympiakos Piraeus II at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–6
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Olympiakos Piraeus II win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
91′We said Olympiakos Piraeus II at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
93′Nestos Chrisoupolis score on 90′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 0–2–98
93′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–2–98
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Olympiakos Piraeus II 1–2 Nestos Chrisoupolis
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Nestos Chrisoupolis win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 95%)
FTFULL TIME Olympiakos Piraeus II 1–2 Nestos Chrisoupolis
FTOlympiakos Piraeus II 1–2 Nestos Chrisoupolis · Olympiakos Piraeus II win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Olympiakos Piraeus II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Olympiakos Piraeus II 46%, draw 26%, Nestos Chrisoupolis 28%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Olympiakos Piraeus II v Nestos ChrisoupolisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Olympiakos Piraeus II win46%

Draw26%

Nestos Chrisoupolis win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Olympiakos Piraeus II

Nestos Chrisoupolis

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Super League 2

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Olympiakos Piraeus II	7	−5	6
14	Nestos Chrisoupolis	7	−4	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · olympiakos piraeus ii winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

46% The market38%

Us46%

~~Market~~38%

We make Olympiakos Piraeus II a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Olympiakos Piraeus II v Nestos Chrisoupolis~~1.45 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in Super League 2 this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 6 v 5~~13 v 14

~~The market · Olympiakos Piraeus II win~~38% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Olympiakos Piraeus II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Olympiakos Piraeus II win	46%	38%	+8
Draw	26%	29%	−3
Nestos Chrisoupolis win	28%	32%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	46%	43%	+3
Both teams to score	49%	50%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	70%	68%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	25%	24%	+1
Olympiakos Piraeus II or draw	72%	68%	+4
Olympiakos Piraeus II clean sheet	35%	–	–
Nestos Chrisoupolis clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.1%

0123450 8.4 9.1 4.7 1 12.1 11.8 6.4 2.3 2 8.3 8.5 4.5 3 4.1 4.2 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Olympiakos Piraeus II down, Nestos Chrisoupolis across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,887 Super League 2 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.9% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Olympiakos Piraeus II at home: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Nestos Chrisoupolis away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Olympiakos Piraeus II, 1.07 for Nestos Chrisoupolis. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League 2 this season · since 13 Sept

OLYMPIAKOS PIRAEUS II

WLLDLD2–1 · 2–4 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–2

NESTOS CHRISOUPOLIS

WLLLLD1–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Marko	7	+7	19
2	Kallithea	7	+5	16
3	Panionios	7	+5	14
4	Larisa	7	+5	12
5	Panserraikos	7	+3	11
6	Ellas Syros	7	+5	10
7	Panthrakikos	7	+1	9
8	Niki Volos	7	0	8
9	Apollon Pontou	7	−1	8
10	Anagennisi Karditsas	7	−2	8
11	Asteras Tripolis II	7	−2	8
12	PAOK II	7	−4	8
13	Olympiakos Piraeus II	7	−5	6
14	Nestos Chrisoupolis	7	−4	5
15	Pyrgos 1968	7	−5	5
16	Zakynthos	7	−8	3