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Olympiakos Piraeus II v Kallithea

Olympiakos Piraeus II

0–1Full time

Kallithea

Super League 2 · WED 14 OCT

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 15:31

Olympiakos Piraeus II 0–1 Kallithea KALLITHEA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kallithea win~~43%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.494

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.398

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kallithea win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Kallithea was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 31–27–42
1′KICK-OFF Olympiakos Piraeus II v Kallithea
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Kallithea win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Olympiakos Piraeus II 0–0 Kallithea
46′SECOND HALF Olympiakos Piraeus II 0–0 Kallithea
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Kallithea win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
48′Kallithea find the net on 48′. 0–1. 0–1 · 6–19–75
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Olympiakos Piraeus II 0–1 Kallithea
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Kallithea win: 43% at kick-off, 75% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Kallithea win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 19%)
49′We published Kallithea at 43%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
64′We published Kallithea at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Kallithea win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
74′We published Kallithea at 43%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 1–13–85
80′We published Kallithea at 43%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Kallithea win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
87′We published Kallithea at 43%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
FTFULL TIME Olympiakos Piraeus II 0–1 Kallithea
FTOlympiakos Piraeus II 0–1 Kallithea · Kallithea win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Olympiakos Piraeus II v KallitheaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 12:31 · locked at kick-off

Olympiakos Piraeus II win32%

Draw25%

Kallithea win43%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 12:45

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Olympiakos Piraeus II

Kallithea

3Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Kallithea	5	4	12
12	Olympiakos Piraeus II	5	-4	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kallithea winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 12:31 · locked at kick-off

43% The market49%

Us43%

~~Market~~49%

We make Kallithea a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Olympiakos Piraeus II v Kallithea~~1.16 – 1.40

~~Last six in Super League 2~~W1 D2 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 12~~12 v 3

~~The market · Kallithea win~~49% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · kallithea win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Olympiakos Piraeus II win	32%	24%	+8
Draw	25%	28%	−2
Kallithea win	43%	49%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	47%	45%	+1
Both teams to score	50%	50%	0
Over 1.5 goals	71%	69%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	26%	26%	0
Olympiakos Piraeus II or draw	57%	51%	+6
Olympiakos Piraeus II clean sheet	26%	–	–
Kallithea clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 7.9 11.4 7.5 3.6 1 9.6 11.7 8.2 3.9 2 5.3 6.9 4.7 2.2 3 2.1 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Olympiakos Piraeus II down, Kallithea across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,878 Super League 2 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.2% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 4.17 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Olympiakos Piraeus II at home: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Kallithea away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Olympiakos Piraeus II, 1.40 for Kallithea. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~4.17

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~OLY 0–0 KAL · KAL 2–3 OLY · OLY 1–2 KAL · KAL 3–2 OLY

Form · last six in Super League 2

OLYMPIAKOS PIRAEUS II

LDWLLD0–3 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–4 · 1–4 · 1–1

KALLITHEA

WWLWWW2–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Marko	6	7	18
2	Panionios	6	5	13
3	Kallithea	5	4	12
4	Larisa	6	5	11
5	Panserraikos	6	3	10
6	Ellas Syros	6	5	9
7	Panthrakikos	6	1	8
8	Apollon Pontou	6	0	8
9	Niki Volos	6	0	7
10	Asteras Tripolis II	6	-2	7
11	Anagennisi Karditsas	6	-3	5
12	Olympiakos Piraeus II	5	-4	5
13	Pyrgos 1968	6	-4	5
14	PAOK II	6	-5	5
15	Nestos Chrisoupolis	6	-4	4
16	Zakynthos	6	-8	2