Niki Volos v Panionios prediction · Super League 2

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 15:31

Niki Volos 1–1 Panionios NIKI VOLOS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Niki Volos win~~39%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.719

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.668

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Niki Volos win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Niki Volos 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–31–30
1′KICK-OFF Niki Volos v Panionios
7′Niki Volos score on 7′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 71–20–9
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Niki Volos 1–0 Panionios
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Niki Volos win: 39% at kick-off, 71% now
8′We said Niki Volos at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–20–9
30′The goal count is tracking the 1.9 we expected. 1–0 · 74–20–7
35′We said Niki Volos at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
45′HALF-TIME Niki Volos 1–0 Panionios
46′SECOND HALF Niki Volos 1–0 Panionios
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Niki Volos win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
55′We said Niki Volos at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
66′Panionios find the net on 66′. 1–1. 1–1 · 20–64–16
66′We said Niki Volos at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 1–1 · 20–64–16
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Niki Volos 1–1 Panionios
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Niki Volos win: 39% at kick-off, 20% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Niki Volos win 84%)
67′We said Niki Volos at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–65–16
67′Panionios find the net on 64′. 1–1. 1–1 · 19–65–16
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Niki Volos win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
75′We said Niki Volos at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–75–11
81′We said Niki Volos at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–83–7
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Niki Volos win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
88′We said Niki Volos at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Niki Volos 1–1 Panionios
FTNiki Volos 1–1 Panionios · Niki Volos win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Niki Volos are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Niki Volos 39%, draw 31%, Panionios 30%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Niki Volos v PanioniosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Niki Volos win39%

Draw31%

Panionios win30%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 12:45

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Niki Volos

Panionios

8Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Super League 2

Last match: 12 Oct · Super League 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Panionios	6	+5	13
11	Niki Volos	6	0	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · niki volos winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:38 · locked at kick-off

39% The market39%

Us39%

~~Market~~39%

We make Niki Volos a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.0–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Niki Volos v Panionios~~1.04 – 0.86

~~Form · Super League 2 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 13~~11 v 3

~~The market · Niki Volos win~~39% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Niki Volos win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Niki Volos win	39%	39%	0
Draw	31%	34%	−3
Panionios win	30%	28%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	30%	33%	−3
Both teams to score	36%	41%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	56%	58%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	13%	16%	−3
Niki Volos or draw	70%	72%	−2
Niki Volos clean sheet	43%	–	–
Panionios clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.7%

0123450 15.3 13.3 5.6 1 15.7 12.4 5.6 2 7.9 6.6 2.9 3 2.9 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Niki Volos down, Panionios across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,885 Super League 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.3% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 0.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Niki Volos at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Panionios away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.04 goals for Niki Volos, 0.86 for Panionios. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~0.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~NIK 0–0 PAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Super League 2 this season · since 6 Sept

NIKI VOLOS

LLLWDW1–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 1–0

PANIONIOS

WWDWLW2–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Marko	7	+7	19
2	Kallithea	7	+5	16
3	Panionios	6	+5	13
4	Larisa	7	+5	12
5	Panserraikos	7	+3	11
6	Ellas Syros	7	+5	10
7	Panthrakikos	7	+1	9
8	Apollon Pontou	6	0	8
9	Anagennisi Karditsas	7	−2	8
10	Asteras Tripolis II	7	−2	8
11	Niki Volos	6	0	7
12	Olympiakos Piraeus II	7	−5	6
13	Nestos Chrisoupolis	7	−4	5
14	PAOK II	6	−5	5
15	Pyrgos 1968	7	−5	5
16	Zakynthos	7	−8	3