Nestos Chrisoupolis v Kallithea prediction · Super League 2

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Nestos Chrisoupolis 0–0 Kallithea KALLITHEA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kallithea win~~40%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.729

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.758

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kallithea win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Kallithea 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 30–31–40
1′KICK-OFF Nestos Chrisoupolis v Kallithea
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Kallithea win 34%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Kallithea win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
45′HALF-TIME Nestos Chrisoupolis 0–0 Kallithea
46′SECOND HALF Nestos Chrisoupolis 0–0 Kallithea
49′We said Kallithea at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 22–50–28
58′We said Kallithea at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 19–57–24
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Kallithea win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
68′We said Kallithea at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 15–66–19
75′We said Kallithea at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 11–74–14
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Kallithea win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
81′We said Kallithea at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 7–83–9
88′We said Kallithea at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Nestos Chrisoupolis 0–0 Kallithea
FTNestos Chrisoupolis 0–0 Kallithea · Kallithea win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kallithea are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nestos Chrisoupolis 30%, draw 31%, Kallithea 40%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Nestos Chrisoupolis v KallitheaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Nestos Chrisoupolis win30%

Draw31%

Kallithea win40%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nestos Chrisoupolis

Kallithea

8Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · Super League 2

Last match: 14 Oct · Super League 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Kallithea	6	+5	15
15	Nestos Chrisoupolis	6	−4	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kallithea winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:47 · locked at kick-off

40% The market45%

Us40%

~~Market~~45%

We make Kallithea a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nestos Chrisoupolis v Kallithea~~0.86 – 1.06

~~Form · Super League 2 this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 15~~15 v 2

~~The market · Kallithea win~~45% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kallithea win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nestos Chrisoupolis win	30%	26%	+4
Draw	31%	30%	+1
Kallithea win	40%	45%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	30%	40%	−10
Both teams to score	36%	47%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	56%	65%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	13%	21%	−8
Nestos Chrisoupolis or draw	60%	55%	+5
Nestos Chrisoupolis clean sheet	35%	–	–
Kallithea clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 15.9%

0123450 14.9 15.9 8.2 3.0 1 13.0 12.4 6.7 2.5 2 5.5 5.6 2.9 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nestos Chrisoupolis down, Kallithea across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,881 Super League 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 34.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Nestos Chrisoupolis at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Kallithea away: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.86 goals for Nestos Chrisoupolis, 1.06 for Kallithea. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Super League 2 this season · since 6 Sept

NESTOS CHRISOUPOLIS

DWLLLL1–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–2

KALLITHEA

WLWWWW2–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Marko	7	+7	19
2	Kallithea	6	+5	15
3	Panionios	6	+5	13
4	Larisa	6	+5	11
5	Ellas Syros	7	+5	10
6	Panserraikos	6	+3	10
7	Panthrakikos	6	+1	8
8	Apollon Pontou	6	0	8
9	Asteras Tripolis II	7	−2	8
10	Niki Volos	6	0	7
11	Anagennisi Karditsas	6	−3	5
12	Pyrgos 1968	6	−4	5
13	Olympiakos Piraeus II	6	−5	5
14	PAOK II	6	−5	5
15	Nestos Chrisoupolis	6	−4	4
16	Zakynthos	7	−8	3